People always want to know about back testing but back testing is well over
rated. Most systems are curve fitted to past data on the assumption that the
market will behave next year like it did last year, which is patently rubbish.
You could probably find something that correlates perfectly with the rainfall
in Bangladesh for the last year but would you put your money on that? Back
testing is where traders miss the mark. Ten million back tests have not yet
produced a flawless system, yet people still do it. This system back tests well
but changes according to market conditions - modifications are posted in the
Members Area.
The Oil Trading Business System is very easy to use and the signals will be
produced on your computer identical to the ones I trade myself. They are
completely unambiguous and easy to read. We sell on a down arrow and buy on an
up arrow, so long as this is confirmed by the Trade Confirmation/Close
Indicator (TCCI). Trades currently have a 40 point stop loss and a 50 point
take profit (varies with conditions). However, trades are closed before then if
the TCCI changes colour. The trade indicator can be adjusted to suit varying
conditions and occasional updates are posted in the Members Area. Remember, I
am actually trading this every day.
It has just over a 60% success rate with the average win being more than the
average loss. At the time of writing (9th March) conditions are more difficult
than they used to be but we are still making a profit. Volatility is much less
now, so monthly profits will be reduced from over 2,000 pips to around 500 pips
a month. Conditions should improve as the economy settles. Oil can be traded
online from $1 a point upwards. Results continued to be good during the period
of the credit crunch.
http://totbem.blogspot.com/#
