Stuart's observations are astute as usual. No offense to IC and the hospital (our 2nd and 3rd largest employers), but Ithaca is essentially a company town for Cornell. If education goes more towards "e-learning" Cornell undergrad might shrink a bit, but R&D are at the heart of Cornell and these efforts are supported by armies of grad students and thousands of staff. And the R&D component of CU is growing leaps and bounds (look at all of the newly constructed, gifted facilities on the campus), well funded by our tax dollars and private "investments". So, slow but continued growth is probably what we will see for Ithaca. I also agree with Marty that degrowth is a good idea and that as a global civilization we need to drastically reduce our numbers. And it's hard to tell what the carrying capacity of the region is, especially since we are a significant component of the food shed for the New York Metro area. My $.02. Tom
On 6/23/2015 10:42 AM, Stuart Staniford wrote: > The economy of Tompkins county is largely driven by Cornell, which > is overwhelmingly our largest exporter and employer. The > Cornell population (faculty, staff, and students) has been growing at > around 1% per year for decades, reaching 38340 in 2014, almost 40% of > the county population. Most of the rest of the county are likely > either employed in service businesses for that population, or dependents. > > What would you propose to do to prevent Cornell from continuing to grow? > > Stuart. > > > >> On Jun 23, 2015, at 9:34 AM, Marty Hiller <[email protected] >> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: >> >> Personally I am very ambivalent about the assumption of continued >> growth. It seems to me we should be planning for a population that is >> at or below our regional carrying capacity. It also seems to me we >> should be planning for a housing mix that matches the expected >> demographics and income distribution of that population. >> - Marty >> >> >> On Jun 23, 2015, at 7:58 AM, Eric Clay <[email protected] >> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: >> >>> Hi Gay and all, >>> >>> These thought games can be very useful. Here are a couple of >>> thoughts that may give a fuller understanding of the magnitude of >>> the problem. >>> >>> As long as we have some of the largest generators of employment in >>> the region, we will continue to draw workers from as many as >>> thirteen counties in New York State and Pennsylvania. So my guess, >>> supported by some evidence, is that for every two jobs we create >>> locally, we put one person in the position of commuting (either >>> moving to the region, but outside the County; or already living >>> outside but positioning for a better commute). >>> >>> You have noted that Ithaca is draw for those both young and old with >>> their own or family resources to buy in. >>> >>> I will make some strong assumptions in the following comments, so >>> these numbers are more illustrative than definitive. >>> >>> With over 20,000 in-commuters and roughly 5,000 out-commuters, that >>> produces a rough net of 15,000. If each worker on average has one >>> dependent, as do the very many who commute in from just outside the >>> county, then we are looking at 30,000 folks are are dependents on >>> Tompkins County. Swelling the effective population to about 135,000 >>> above our current 105,000. >>> >>> This is the pressure that exists for the County and the wider >>> region, even before we look at the additional pressure of more new >>> jobs and more new residents with substantial disposable income. >>> >>> Almost all of the imbalance in commuting stats has occured in the >>> past 30 years, as we became self-consciously greener and >>> progressive, but not cleanly so. >>> >>> For the past 70 years we have averaged about 7,000 or so new >>> residents every decade. >>> >>> We have a local and a regional problem. We are a local engine of >>> growth and a national object of attraction. >>> >>> Would the the 1000 people we live nearest be able to absorb 300 to >>> 500 new people over the next 20 years? Should we? >>> >>> Can we afford to not continue to prosper? How should that >>> prosperity be shared? Including its negative impacts on natural >>> resource and people's time? >>> >>> >>> >>> Eric Clay >>> Shared Journeys >>> 832 North Aurora Street >>> Ithaca, NY 14850 >>> 607-592-6874 >>> [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> >>> sharedjourneys.net >>> >>> >>> -----Original Message----- >>> From: Gay Nicholson <[email protected]> >>> To: Sustainability in Tompkins County >>> <[email protected]> >>> Sent: Mon, Jun 22, 2015 7:48 pm >>> Subject: Re: [sustainable_tompkins-l] Home Rule and the Greater Good >>> >>> I agree that we can easily use online forums for participation, but >>> I am also thinking that neighborhood-level conversation will be >>> needed at some point. Even if every neighborhood had a simple >>> thought experiment to run together: add housing for 500 to your >>> neighborhood over the next 5 years with half of it affordable to >>> those with below median income. If you actually had to decide, how >>> would you do that? What if other neighborhoods could pay you to add >>> some of their 500 housing units to your neighborhood? >>> >>> I think running scenario games can be instructive for learning about >>> the feedback loops within a system. >>> >>> Gay >>> >>> -------------------------------------- >>> Gay Nicholson, Ph.D. >>> President >>> Sustainable Tompkins >>> 309 N. Aurora St. >>> Ithaca, NY 14850 >>> www.sustainabletompkins.org >>> 607-533-7312 (home office) >>> 607-220-8991 (cell) >>> 607-272-1720 (ST office) >>> >>> [email protected] >>> >>> On Mon, Jun 22, 2015 at 7:09 PM, Regi Teasley <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> Just a thought. >>> Is it possible to have more citizen participation in planning (etc.) >>> via the Internet? >>> We know that getting people out on cold nights in questionable >>> weather in the winter is very tough. Pleasant summer nights seem to >>> tug us outside so going indoors for a meeting is hard. >>> >>> Don't we have the technology to allow us to participate from >>> off-site as well? Might this help to increase participation? >>> >>> Regi >>> >>> >>> "Love the animals, love the plants, love everything. If you love >>> everything, you will perceive the divine mystery in things." >>> Dostoyevsky. >>> >>> >>> On Jun 22, 2015, at 4:33 PM, Gay Nicholson < [email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>> Hmm, yes, I think we all mostly understand about supply and demand >>> curves. But my question was about not being stuck in reactive mode >>> at the tail end of a repeating cycle. >>> >>> We have all heard bad stories of wonderful places that were "loved >>> to death." They become popular and then get swarmed and all the >>> human activity damages what was special. Even more often, a popular >>> place attracts wealthy outsiders who gradually replace the people >>> who were there (e.g. almost all of the shores of the Finger Lakes). >>> >>> The issue of limits to growth and urban growth boundaries has been >>> explored repeatedly, but it feels to me that our community hasn't >>> been hosting a serious discussion on the topic for many years. Back >>> in the 90s, our Citizens Planning Alliance put together many >>> educational events on combatting sprawl and franchised local >>> economies. And the Connect Ithaca group did more in the Oughts with >>> lots of discussions about Urban Villages and our need to add them to >>> strategic locations to enable more transit-oriented development and >>> walkable neighborhoods. We need critical mass in certain places to >>> make the financing of bus runs work (or in our case, we were looking >>> at podcar transects). >>> >>> But I have never known us to have a discussion about optimal >>> population level for Tompkins County and decide at a fine grain >>> level (neighborhood level) exactly how many more can be added in >>> each part of the community. We have a downtown density policy, but >>> we've never put a cap on it or decided on a parcel basis how many to >>> put in one spot. Can we even do that? The public often won't come >>> and participate in comp plan efforts, but will come out and get >>> involved when a specific project is proposed in their neighborhood >>> (as we are seeing with the Old Library and former P&C sites). >>> >>> Thought experiment: If Tompkins County decided that we wanted to >>> accept up to 20,000 more people into the county, and cap it at that >>> until 2050 or later, how would we go about deciding where to put >>> them? What would be a fair process? I think we need to get a >>> widespread dialogue started on this, but unfortunately most humans >>> will only give their energy to fighting something in their own >>> backyards and are slow to participate otherwise. >>> >>> And I haven't even mentioned yet the problem of affordable housing, >>> which is what my earlier question was focused upon. What is a fair >>> level of density for every neighborhood to accept, and how do we >>> assure that lower-income people get to live in every neighborhood >>> too? Will Cayuga Heights accept densification at the same level as >>> Fall Creek? >>> >>> I think that a lot of people would agree that we don't like rural >>> sprawl and the loss of farmlands, wetlands, etc. and that it is >>> better in terms of climate change to concentrate populations and >>> reduce car travel. But from what I have witnessed over the decades >>> here, simply adding density to the city has not made planning in >>> rural areas smarter (witness Lansing). I think part of that is >>> because we haven't imagined any caps on growth or tipping points >>> where we destroy what we already have in place. If some >>> neighborhoods are exempted from high density, what do they owe the >>> neighborhoods who are chosen to carry the density? What is our >>> carrying capacity? >>> >>> It's so very complex, but let's keep plugging away at it. >>> >>> Gay >>> >>> -------------------------------------- >>> Gay Nicholson, Ph.D. >>> President >>> Sustainable Tompkins >>> 309 N. Aurora St. >>> Ithaca, NY 14850 >>> www.sustainabletompkins.org >>> 607-533-7312 (home office) >>> 607-220-8991 (cell) >>> 607-272-1720 (ST office) >>> >>> [email protected] >>> >>> On Thu, Jun 18, 2015 at 1:55 PM, Stuart Staniford >>> <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>> On Jun 18, 2015, at 1:17 PM, Gay Nicholson < [email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>> Wow, the issues that Sharon has posted are exactly the ones I have >>> been thinking about too. I've met so many people who have moved >>> here because of the quality of life in Ithaca, often from bigger >>> markets where they can cash out with enough to buy here and >>> renovate. What is a process by which housing is added and it goes >>> to lower-income current residents or in-commuters? >>> >>> Economics 101 - if you increase the supply of something, other >>> things being equal, the price will go down. See case 3 of: >>> >>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand >>> >>> Adding housing downtown, of pretty much any kind, increases the >>> supply of units which reduces the number of people bidding for each >>> unit and thus lowers how high prices will go. At present, there’s a >>> significant shortage of downtown housing, and units in the decent >>> neighborhoods all go to the highest offer in a bidding war. Prices >>> have been going up and that forces lower income folks out. I happen >>> to know a person with an admin job in a small medical office who >>> spent two years looking for a house in Ithaca before giving up and >>> buying in Dryden. That kind of thing will only go higher up the >>> income scale unless a lot more supply is brought on downtown >>> somewhere. We can either have a denser downtown with taller >>> buildings, or keep the downtown we have and force a lot more >>> suburban/semi-rural development on the edges of town. It appears >>> that the county legislators with downtown constituencies would like >>> to keep the downtown we have (and thus push development out into the >>> more rural townships) and the county legislators with rural >>> constituencies would like to densify downtown (and thus reduce >>> development pressure on their own areas). >>> >>> Stuart. >>> >>> >>> -------------------------------------- >>> Gay Nicholson, Ph.D. >>> President >>> Sustainable Tompkins >>> 309 N. Aurora St. >>> Ithaca, NY 14850 >>> www.sustainabletompkins.org >>> 607-533-7312 (home office) >>> 607-220-8991 (cell) >>> 607-272-1720 (ST office) >>> >>> [email protected] >>> >>> On Thu, Jun 18, 2015 at 10:25 AM, Sharon Ahlers >>> <[email protected]> wrote: >>> I appreciate the thoughtful posts by Gay, Eric, and Jane. Reading >>> Gay's post and the responses led me to raise the following three >>> questions. >>> >>> One: Does more housing = housing for current commuters? >>> Consider the following possibilities: >>> >>> 1. People retire, and when they retire, they often move, and Ithaca >>> is being touted in the national press as a great place to retire. >>> 2. Some people have jobs that depend on an Internet connection, not >>> a physical work space. Ithaca is also being touted in the national >>> press as a great place for the "creative class." >>> >>> My point here is that for the some people (with significant class >>> privilege), where one lives is being de-coupled from where one works >>> or worked. Building more housing units in Ithaca may simply provide >>> more space for gentrification. I am not saying this will inevitably >>> happen. I am just saying that perhaps we might examine this >>> possibility before assuming that more housing = more housing for >>> people who are currently commuting into Ithaca. >>> >>> Two: Have city planners learned from past mistakes in building dense >>> housing? >>> What is the evidence that Ithaca planners can avoid the problems >>> that affect residents of dense housing projects such as West >>> Village? Do Ithaca planners now have the necessary skill to create >>> dense housing that does not become a magnet for drug dealers and >>> violent crime? >>> >>> Three: How do property taxes affect the ability of people to live in >>> the city? >>> Housing expense is driven by two factors: the cost to purchase >>> housing and property taxes. (Both factors are reflected in rent.) >>> Densifying Ithaca will not lower property taxes, because the demand >>> for services will rise with population. Ithaca uses property taxes >>> to pay for some really nice things, from park landscaping to an >>> array of AP classes and computers for every student. Maybe we can't >>> really afford all of those those things. Maybe we're pricing people >>> out of the city to pay for those things. I say "maybe"--I could be >>> totally wrong. However, has anyone looked at this question closely? >>> I am particularly concerned about property taxes because, high as >>> they are, we don't seem to be putting enough money into infrastructure. >>> >>> Before arguing whether dense housing is worth the sacrifice, we need >>> to be reasonably sure that dense housing will solve the problem of >>> commuters. To find out if dense housing will solve the problem, I >>> think we need to know the answers to these three questions. >>> >>> Regards, >>> >>> Sharon >>> >>> >>> >>> On 6/17/15 10:31 PM, Eric Clay wrote: >>> Actually Gay's post is more balanced. The issue is looking at the >>> greater good vs. the special interests of one's constituents, and >>> balancing the outcome to be fair. >>> >>> The Franklin folks ignore the scale of the problem that already >>> exists, with nearly 30% of our permanent workforce commuting in from >>> outside the County, a rate of in-commuting that is only exceeded by >>> NY City in the state. These are over 20,000 people. Only 5000 >>> commute out. >>> >>> That extreme inequity began in the mid-1980s, when restrictions on >>> development were passed under the rubric of protecting the >>> environment. This was identified at the time by key leaders as the >>> first step at so-called "green gentrification." >>> >>> The working poor and lower middle income groups, which are >>> disproportionately just out of the county, have no say in this >>> process, and no representatives. >>> >>> We need probably 1000 to 3000 condominiums, the same number of >>> apartments and the same number of other types of housing units, at >>> all income levels, for the county to more densely absorb the reality >>> that already exists. >>> >>> Almost every historic neighborhood in Ithaca is an eclectic mix of >>> architecture. No real coherence. Nor should we attempt to enforce >>> such on a dynamic place that is inherintly eccentric and that has >>> been in state of denial about its growth for decades. >>> >>> The war on the poor and the hollowing out of the lower middle class >>> in Tompkins County has been 10 to 20 years ahead of the rest of the >>> United States for the past 30 years. We may not be the 1% but we are >>> too many of the top, and we are squeezing out those below. >>> >>> We need to take action. The degree of development necessary will >>> impact and lower the value of my Fall Creek home. It is part of the >>> cost of equity and relinquishing privilege in the name of >>> sustainability. I accept it willingly and invite it. >>> >>> The preservation of a core community hub in the form of Lifelong, >>> one that crosses extreme economic class differences, and the many >>> fewer miles driven, and fewer cars owned, and the freeing up of >>> housing elsewhere for others more than justifies the Travis/Hyde >>> proposal, in my mind. >>> >>> Why is Franklin's proposal 30 to 40% more expensive for Lifelong >>> over the next 20 years? >>> >>> Further, that block needs just one large building to add to the >>> eclectic mix. >>> >>> Franklin preserves the "green gentry" and privilege, under the >>> rubric of sustainablity and neighborhood fit. NIMBYism is alive and >>> well, and always has been in Ithaca. >>> >>> Our future does not look good, until or unless we have the thorough >>> vetting of all affected parties and everyone sees a common way >>> forward together. >>> >>> Eric >>> >>> >>> Eric Clay >>> Shared Journeys >>> 832 North Aurora Street >>> Ithaca, NY 14850 >>> 607-592-6874 >>> [email protected] >>> sharedjourneys.net >>> >>> >>> -----Original Message----- >>> From: Jane-Marie Law <[email protected]> >>> To: c4sed <[email protected]>; W Dryden Core >>> <[email protected]>; SUSTAINABLE_TOMPKINS-L >>> <[email protected]> >>> Sent: Wed, Jun 17, 2015 9:26 pm >>> Subject: Re: [sustainable_tompkins-l] Home Rule and the Greater Good >>> >>> Really excellent, Gay. My husband and I have a significant >>> investment in a building 80' from this site (in fact, it is our only >>> real investment at all, aside form our home), and the tear down >>> construction and scale of the proposed Travis Hyde proposal would be >>> really harmful to many, many businesses, and many, many people. To >>> my knowledge, every single neighbor adjacent to this site has spoken >>> vehemently against the Travis Hyde proposal and in favor of Franklin. >>> >>> I was also especially shocked to hear the energy expert for the >>> Travis Hyde proposal speak to Ithacans in the way he did about >>> natural gas. This makes it all the more disappointing to me that >>> people like Martha Robertson would vote in favor of this project. >>> >>> I am also shocked that the people of Lifelong would want this to be >>> their legacy. Every single neighbor of theirs has spoken against >>> the scale of their proposal. I know some of the elderly people in >>> this community of people, and many are actually very cognizant of >>> this fact. >>> >>> Last, I like density. I think it is very important. But this >>> project is too dense. It is also uni-generational, by and large. >>> >>> >>> >>> Jane-Marie Law >>> Associate Professor of Japanese Religions >>> Department of Asian Studies >>> Fellow, Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future >>> 350 Rockefeller Hall >>> Cornell University >>> Ithaca, NY 14853-2502 >>> 607-255-5095/ 607-255-8332 >>> >>> >>> >>> From: [email protected] < >>> [email protected]> on behalf of Gay >>> Nicholson < [email protected]> >>> Sent: Wednesday, June 17, 2015 7:51 PM >>> To: [email protected]; W Dryden Core; SUSTAINABLE_TOMPKINS-L >>> Subject: [sustainable_tompkins-l] Home Rule and the Greater Good >>> >>> My blog post on last night's county legislature meeting on the fate >>> of the Old Library. >>> >>> https://sustainabletompkins.org/st-events/home-rule-and-the-greater-good/ >>> >>> Your thoughts? >>> >>> Gay >>> -------------------------------------- >>> Gay Nicholson, Ph.D. >>> President >>> Sustainable Tompkins >>> 309 N. Aurora St. >>> Ithaca, NY 14850 >>> www.sustainabletompkins.org >>> 607-533-7312 (home office) >>> 607-220-8991 (cell) >>> 607-272-1720 (ST office) >>> >>> [email protected] >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >> >> >> For more information about sustainability in the Tompkins County >> area, please visit: http://www.sustainabletompkins.org/ >> If you have questions about this list please contact the list >> manager, Tom Shelley, at [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>. >> >> > For more information about sustainability in the Tompkins County area, please visit: http://www.sustainabletompkins.org/ If you have questions about this list please contact the list manager, Tom Shelley, at [email protected].
