Dear Keith,
My point about oil reserves, is that it does not matter if the predictions are wrong with a few hundreds of percent, the situation is fatal as it is. We share the opinion that, for many reasons, big efforts on bio fuels must taken now. Hakan At 10:44 PM 8/4/2002 +0900, you wrote: >womplex_oo1 wrote: > > >I've done several extrapolations of oil consumption using a > >spreadsheet, and the oil reserve information provided by BP World Oil > >Statistics website: > > > >http://www.bp.com/centres/energy/world_stat_rev/oil/reserves.asp > > > >A straight linear extrapolation of oil consumption indicates that all > >the world's oil will run out between the years 2032-2045. By "run > >out" I mean every last drop of oil gone. > > > >Oil production does not support this linear extrapolation however. > >Production will reach a peak sometime before these terminal years, > >and decrease exponentially forever after, preventing anyone from ever > >extracting all the oil. This Hubbert Peak will have to occur > >sometime before these dates, but the later it occurs the sharper the > >decline in oil production. > > > >When do you think the Hubbert Peak will occur? > >There are some other extrapolations one could do. Take a range of >issues that positively scream for judicious application of the >precautionary principle and development of alternatives, however that >would threaten the immediate interests of the powers-that-be; then >calculate how long on average they manage to spend in denial, how >long on average they manage to drag their feet, how long they get >away with prolonged negotiations that only address part of the >problem and propose inadequate solutions, and how long the transition >period they manage to muscle across, add it all up, add 5, subtract >the square root of the number you started off with, cross your heart >and count to 13, and you have the number of decades after the point >at which something could still have been done about it. This might >perhaps be referred to as "Hubbert's Trough". > >Now isn't that young master Bush proposing to increase energy >consumption over the next decade or two? > >On the other hand, when energy prices shot up in California last >year, down went the demand. Maybe the market does indeed work >sometimes. The Newsweek story below says Americans don't believe >there's an energy crisis because the prices are low. Why the OECD, >Todd, me, and a few million others keep saying US gas should cost at >least $6 a gallon. > >Interesting quote in that story: 'Texaco chairman Peter Bijur once >said that talk of failing energy supplies remind him of Cyprian, a >Roman who warned in A.D. 250 that "the world has grown old... The >rainfall and sun's warmth are both diminishing, the metals are nearly >exhausted."' > >http://www.msnbc.com/news/732017.asp?cp1=1 >The Thirst for Oil > >Actually there's another extrapolation that might be useful, concerning this: > > >A straight linear extrapolation of oil consumption indicates that all > >the world's oil will run out between the years 2032-2045. > >The Newsweek story also says this: "... it looked in 1970 as if oil >would run out in 33 years-that is, next year. This year, the same >calculation puts the day of reckoning in 2046." > >As Hakan said, survey techniques are much more accurate now. And >that's it? We've got there, huh? No more progress, science stands >still. In fact it's quite easy to get a handle on the rate of >technological improvement. It's exponential, like computing power. >Could just be you're looking at an ever-receding goalpost with >Hubbert's Peak as well as with the final drop of oil being extracted. > >This is worth saying again: > > >One response to the $75 per bbl question above was this: > > >"... excellent point. We tried to stabilize the price of Gold for > >years. Now its >200$ and mines are viable that weren't at $35/oz. > >Plus, many commercial processes that used Gold have found > >substitutes or ways to use less Gold. Gold-plated contacts are > >alloyed with Nickel to extend and strengthen the microlayer of Gold. > >Companies have arisen to reclaim Gold off e-scrap. Now, the analogy > >is obvious. If Gold were held at $35, then none of these measures > >would be existent. In the same way, tech-progress in energy has been > >halted due to cheap oil. I have no doubt whatsoever that inventors > >can come up with a way to make oil at $20-50 per barrel. So let the > >price rise. I hope oil goes to $200 per barrel." > >Yup. > >So knock out ALL the artificial props from under US gas prices, >charge the REAL price at the pump and everywhere else, then on top of >that tax the hell out of it and use the taxes to promote energy >efficiency, energy conservation, and renewable energy. > >And do it NOW - and not just because of Hubbert's Peak. Not even >because of Hubbert's Peak, there are far more pressing reasons than >that. > >I guess you might have to do something about your politicians first, LOL! > >Keith > > >Biofuel at Journey to Forever: >http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html > >Biofuels list archives: >http://archive.nnytech.net/ > >Please do NOT send Unsubscribe messages to the list address. >To unsubscribe, send an email to: >[EMAIL PROTECTED] > >Your use of Yahoo! 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