I do not really care about the latest US blackouts, this because it is a 
homemade problem and does not effect the rest of the world. Maybe the taste 
for some basic energy conservation will grow out of it and in this case the 
consequences might have a global positive result. It is however a 
technically interesting event and as such, I cannot resist to speculate 
about the cause.

The reason for this is that the politicians and energy companies now are 
scrambling for an excuse that they can sell to the public. The reality is 
that the government, congress, regulators and energy companies, all have 
failed to meet their responsibility to the public interest. The politicians 
have failed to set the rules for a working environment, the government 
neglected the problems and the corporations took risks in trying to 
maximize profits. The result is enormous cost for the tax payers and adding 
billions to the already most expensive administration in US history.

It is more than 40 years ago I studied electric power generation & 
distribution in school, but the basic principles are still valid. To 
understand the basics of grid network design and traffic distribution, was 
however very useful in my many years involvement with computer network 
techniques. To understand the grid, I will try to give a very simplified 
description of how it works.

Each components, from the transformer stations to the power plants, have 
minimum and maximum loads and automatic shut down in the case of overload. 
This is absolutely necessary equipment protection. In the case of 
transformer stations, it will be a local blackout and repair personnel will 
be sent out to deal with it. The modernization of the distribution system 
is mostly an upgrade to remote control of disconnection and connection of 
grid distribution points. To some extent it can be capacity upgrades and 
changes in architecture.

The faulty common principles for operation policies of user equipment and 
the extensive energy waste in US, leads to unnecessary high and very 
predictable peak demands. The blackout came at a time of day, were peak 
demand could be predicted. We have seen this in California and many of us 
predicted that New York would be the next area that would suffer. I belive 
that the use of natural gas for electricity generation (prohibited by Nixon 
administration) and the current supply crises, it one of the major reasons 
for the massive blackout.

Because of the current high prices for operation of natural gas electricity 
plants, the electricity suppliers want to operate them at a very high 
utilization and will not start up reserve capacity until the last moment. 
It is probably also a "play chicken" situation among the suppliers, to see 
which ones who get nervous and start up reserve generation. This leave 
everybody in a rush situation, when the peak demands come and with close to 
90% utilization, it is urgent.

Every time that a generation resource id added to the grid, it has to be 
started up and then "phased in", before its actual connection. "Phased in" 
is an adjustment of the generators AC (alternate current) to the AC of the 
grid. If it is not properly "phased in" at the connection, a power surge 
will occur. Once "phased in", the grid will keep the generators in phase. 
40 years ago the generators was "phased in" manually and you could often 
see the flickers of the lights, when somebody did not do a perfect "phase 
in". Today it is unusual and most plants have automatic phase adjustments, 
it is however still possible to do premature connections to the grid. If it 
is in a hurry to get the generator on line, it can be connected with a less 
than perfect "phase in" to the AC of the grid and with a electricity surge 
as result.

My bet is that since the grid generators at the occasion was running more 
than 90% utilization and the providers was scrambling to get more resources 
on line. In this situation, badly "phased in" resources were connected, 
with a power surge as result. This power surge released the automatic over 
load protection for an other power plant and they did emergency shut down. 
Once one station shut down, the utilization reaches a level that causes 
other stations to do emergency shut down, in three minutes 21 stations did 
automatic emergency shut down of grid connection and the "blackout" was a 
fact.

Once the grid is down, it is a very time consuming exercise to start up. 
This because the loads have to be manually disconnected before the start 
can begin. Once when the loads are down to the capacity of one power plant, 
the grid can start and then adding of more plants and distribution points.

Hakan





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"No flag is large enough to cover the shame of
killing innocent people" -- Howard Zinn

"Nobody grows old merely by living a number of years.
We grow old by deserting our ideals. Years may
wrinkle the skin, but to give up enthusiasm
wrinkles the soul." - Unknown





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