Appal Energy wrote:
>>4 blackouts in 40 years.  That's actually pretty darned good reliability.
> 
> Yeah. Especially when one of those blackouts was caused by a rodent shorting
> out a transformer...... Billions of squirrel miles and only one blackout
> from such a source.

Well, yes and no.  The design of the grid is that no single point of 
failure can take the whole thing down.  It takes a cascade of failures, 
a cascade of improbable events, to bring the grid down.  But when that 
cascade of improbable events does happen, as we have seen, the results 
can be spectacular.

> Still doesn't speak highly of the fragility of the grid. Nor does it bode
> well for those who opt to remain dependant upon others for power.

The major problem with the grid at the moment is that it is being taxed 
to its limits.  When the grid idles at around 90% of its carrying 
capacity there just isn't enough left over for a good cushion.  That's 
the major reason that this latest blackout progressed as quickly as it 
did.

The major problem with this last blackout was the speed with which it 
spread.  In all of the previous blackouts the progression of improbable 
events happened in minutes.  In this last blackout it all happened in 
about 19 seconds.  Nobody thought that such a widespread blackout could 
happen in such a short time, so nobody designed any systems to be able 
to cope with such a thing.  Unfortunately, Murphy was watching.


AP


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