Rapeseed trade seen benefiting from China GM rules By Sybille de La Hamaide
PARIS, Feb 12 (Reuters) - China's proposed restrictions on genetically modified (GM) food imports will probably benefit worldwide sales of non-GM rapeseed as Chinese importers seek to replace bio-engineered soybeans, analysts said this week. China, which has been a major soybean importer this season, could turn towards non-GM rapeseed if Beijing pushes ahead with a plan next month that would require traders to obtain certificates to import all GM products. The new Chinese rules could benefit exports from the European Union and Australia, which grow non-GM rapeseed, and could harm the United States and Argentina, where a majority of soybeans are bio-engineered. Exports to China of Canadian rapeseed, also known as canola, could also be in jeopardy as a large part of the Canadian crop is genetically modified. While most analysts said a massive increase in EU exports was unlikely due to the small amount of rapeseed available for export from the 15-member bloc, they said it would have a positive effect on the global non-GM rapeseed market. "Restrictions on GMOs would favour (non-GM) rapeseed in general," a French trader said. "We don't care if the Chinese buy European, Canadian or Australian (rapeseed) because even if they don't buy our rapeseed, Pakistan or Bangladesh will," he added. French oilseeds analyst Bernard Nicol said China's role would be essential in dictating the future of the EU rapeseed sector, noting that China had been virtually absent from the European market this season. "We sense a reversal of the situation. Regarding China's imports of GM soy, the foot is more on the brake pedal than the accelerator," he said. Thomas Mielke, editor of Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World, said it was possible China may consider importing EU rapeseed over the short term if the country's new GM rules enter into force on March 20 as scheduled. However, Mielke noted that Europe's relatively small crop and large internal demand meant that it could not be a major long-term supplier to China. "Europe is not in the position to export rapeseed or rapeseed oil for long periods or in large volumes. It is an illusion to think Europe would be able to replace the soy deficit in China," he said. Oil World pegged the EU's 2001/02 rapeseed crop at 9.8 million tonnes, up from 8.9 million last season. Of this, the EU was seen exporting 290,000 tonnes to non-EU countries, down from 450,000 tonnes in 2000/2001 and 2.01 million in 1999/2000. By comparison, China's imports of soybeans between January and December 2001 reached 14 million tonnes, up 34 percent from the previous year, while rapeseed imports dropped 42 percent to 1.7 million tonnes, according to Chinese customs figures. China's main soybean suppliers in 2001 were the United States, with 5.7 million tonnes, and Argentina with 5.0 million tonnes. As around 70 percent of U.S. soybeans are genetically modified, Washington has protested loudly against China's planned clampdown on GM products. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick said last week in Beijing that the regulations were "unacceptable" as they could lead to a halt in exports of U.S. farm products to China. The U.S. Department of Agriculture last week revised downward its estimate of Chinese soybean imports in 2001/2002 to 13.5 million tonnes from the previous estimate of 14 million, citing the uncertainties related to China's new rules. (Additional reporting by Michael Hogan in Hamburg) 07:32 02-12-02 ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~--> FREE COLLEGE MONEY CLICK HERE to search 600,000 scholarships! http://us.click.yahoo.com/iZp8OC/4m7CAA/ySSFAA/9bTolB/TM ---------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Biofuels at Journey to Forever http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Biofuel at WebConX http://www.webconx.com/2000/biofuel/biofuel.htm To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
