http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/15210/story.htm Planet Ark : More world oil use, pollution seen by 2020 - US
USA: March 27, 2002 WASHINGTON - World oil demand is expected to grow an average 2.2 percent annually over the next two decades, helping to spew an extra 3.8 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions a year into the atmosphere by 2020, a U.S. government energy agency said yesterday. With world energy use at the center of the debate over global warming, the forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration warns that developing countries will produce more of the world's heat-trapping greenhouse gases. World carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 6.1 metric tons in 1999 to 7.9 billion metric tons per year in 2010 and 9.9 billion metric tons in 2020, the Energy Department's analytical arm said in its annual international energy outlook. "Much of the projected increase in carbon dioxide emissions is expected to occur in the developing world, where emerging economies are expected to produce the largest increase in energy consumption," EIA said. Even if the industrialized nations act to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the agency warned that continued heavy reliance on coal and other fossil fuels in developing countries means greenhouse gases spewing levels will "grow substantially" over the next two decades. To tackle carbon dioxide emissions industrialized nations would lower their greenhouse gas levels the most under the pending Kyoto Treaty, while individual developing countries would not have to curb their pollution as much, if at all. The Bush administration said the United States would not take part in the treaty, because industrialized countries would be subject to harsher emission limits that the White House feared would hurt the U.S. economy. Oil, which is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, is expected to remain the world's dominant energy source through 2020, with a 40-percent share of total energy consumption, EIA said. World oil demand is forecast to increase from the current 76 million barrels per day (bpd) to 119 million bpd by 2020, EIA said. Most of the increase in oil use would come from transportation fuel, especially in the developing world where improving economies will enable more people to own vehicles. Still, oil's share of the world energy pie will not increase over the coming two decades because many countries are expected to switch from petroleum to natural gas and other fuels, especially for electricity generation, EIA said. Demand for coal, the biggest source of carbon dioxide emissions, is expected to grow at a slow 1.7 percent per year through 2020. Coal's share of energy use is projected to fall from 22 percent to 20 percent, but the decline would be greater except for large increases in coal demand in developing Asian countries like China and India, EIA said. Renewable energy use, which environmental groups have pushed as a way to lower greenhouse gas emissions, is forecast to increase 53 percent by 2020. However, renewables' current 9-percent share of total energy consumption is projected to drop to 8 percent in two decades, EIA said. Natural gas demand will have the fastest growth in global energy consumption, increasing 3.2 percent annually from the current 85 trillion cubic feet a year (Tcf) to almost 162 Tcf by 2020, the agency said. . By Tom Doggett WASHINGTON - World oil demand is expected to grow an average 2.2 percent annually over the next two decades, helping to spew an extra 3.8 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions a year into the atmosphere by 2020, a U.S. government energy agency said yesterday. With world energy use at the center of the debate over global warming, the forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration warns that developing countries will produce more of the world's heat-trapping greenhouse gases. World carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 6.1 metric tons in 1999 to 7.9 billion metric tons per year in 2010 and 9.9 billion metric tons in 2020, the Energy Department's analytical arm said in its annual international energy outlook. "Much of the projected increase in carbon dioxide emissions is expected to occur in the developing world, where emerging economies are expected to produce the largest increase in energy consumption," EIA said. Even if the industrialized nations act to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the agency warned that continued heavy reliance on coal and other fossil fuels in developing countries means greenhouse gases spewing levels will "grow substantially" over the next two decades. To tackle carbon dioxide emissions industrialized nations would lower their greenhouse gas levels the most under the pending Kyoto Treaty, while individual developing countries would not have to curb their pollution as much, if at all. The Bush administration said the United States would not take part in the treaty, because industrialized countries would be subject to harsher emission limits that the White House feared would hurt the U.S. economy. Oil, which is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, is expected to remain the world's dominant energy source through 2020, with a 40-percent share of total energy consumption, EIA said. World oil demand is forecast to increase from the current 76 million barrels per day (bpd) to 119 million bpd by 2020, EIA said. Most of the increase in oil use would come from transportation fuel, especially in the developing world where improving economies will enable more people to own vehicles. Still, oil's share of the world energy pie will not increase over the coming two decades because many countries are expected to switch from petroleum to natural gas and other fuels, especially for electricity generation, EIA said. Demand for coal, the biggest source of carbon dioxide emissions, is expected to grow at a slow 1.7 percent per year through 2020. Coal's share of energy use is projected to fall from 22 percent to 20 percent, but the decline would be greater except for large increases in coal demand in developing Asian countries like China and India, EIA said. Renewable energy use, which environmental groups have pushed as a way to lower greenhouse gas emissions, is forecast to increase 53 percent by 2020. However, renewables' current 9-percent share of total energy consumption is projected to drop to 8 percent in two decades, EIA said. Natural gas demand will have the fastest growth in global energy consumption, increasing 3.2 percent annually from the current 85 trillion cubic feet a year (Tcf) to almost 162 Tcf by 2020, the agency said. Story by Tom Doggett REUTERS NEWS SERVICE ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~--> Buy Stock for $4. No Minimums. FREE Money 2002. http://us.click.yahoo.com/BgmYkB/VovDAA/ySSFAA/9bTolB/TM ---------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Biofuels at Journey to Forever http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Biofuel at WebConX http://www.webconx.com/2000/biofuel/biofuel.htm To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
