Chris b,
The fact is that the oil price has gone up very much thanks to the Iraq
venture. The oil production in Iraq, before the occupation, was almost as
large as what they call the "swing production", or with other words the
cushion that evened out production and demand. The biggest problem and
reason, has also been the US filling up their strategic storage, which was
going down due to the war. Bush has been filling up, independent of the
price of the day.
With the "swing production" gone and higher demand from China and India,
the price have moved up in a steady way and will continue to do so. It is
also interesting to note that the high oil price is mainly a US problem and
countries that pegged their currencies to the greenback. In many other
currencies, the oil price has not gone up that much. This because the
dollar lost significantly in value, 0.89 dollar for one Euro, before the
war, has changed to 1.25 to 1.35. This mean that EU is less effected by the
higher oil price in dollar.
One reason for the low response at the time of the war, was the general
opinion that US would gain and be able to stabilize the oil supplies
rapidly. This has not happened and in combination with that, it was
discovered that a large part of the "general oil reserves" was paperwork.
It is much worse times to come and maybe a serious US lead depression will
be necessary to establish lower oil demand levels. On the other hand, it
might nor help, since the growth in China and India, will outstrip the
effects of a depression. A depression will probably hit US, but it has more
to do with adjustments to a new world economic balance.
The forgiveness of the African debts, is necessary and sound adjustments of
the books, not our leaders sudden rebirth and alter egoistic mood.
Hakan
At 03:29 AM 7/6/2005, you wrote:
i've never heard this term of 'the bilderbergers' before, but i don't find
teh notion too farfetched. more likely to me that their idea of
safeguarding supply is simply to make it more expensive, regardless of
whether it provokes economic downturn or depression. take the fact that
oil prices spiked again simply because of this tropical storm in the gulf
right now; the rationale being that it could disrupt supply.
how do people swallow this bunk? by the same reasoning, oil should have
surpassed $75/bbl the very day we invaded iraq.
as far as your last comment is concerned, isn't it interesting that left
wing parties and labor movements were far more widespread and mainstream
*prior to (and during)* the great depression than *after* (this is
especially true of the situation in the u.s.a.).?
-chris b.
-----Original Message-----
From: Ken Provost <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: Biofuel@sustainablelists.org
Sent: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 17:52:06 -0700
Subject: [Biofuel] ASPO on the Economic near-Future
>From the latest ASPO Newsletter:
<http://www.peakoil.net/>http://www.peakoil.net/
> Expect a severe downturn in the world's economy over
> the next two years as Bilderbergers try to safeguard
> the remaining oil supply by taking money out of people's
> hands. In a recession or, at worst, a depression, the
> population will be forced to dramatically cut down their
> spending habits, thus ensuring a longer supply of oil to
> the world's rich as they try to figure out what to do.
I know, your eyes glaze over when you hear anything about
the Bilderbergers :-) Interesting idea, tho. My Dad was
poor enough in the Great Depression that hey traded with
their Polish neighbors for sauerkraut and potatoes. OTOH,
my Mom was sort of aristocracy, and the same event hardly
even broke their stride! Funny how economic downturn may
even be in the best interest of the world's richest....
-K
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