Hubbert peak theory
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The Hubbert peak theory, also known as "peak oil", concerns the long-term rate of conventional oil (and other fossil fuel) extraction and depletion. It is named after American geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who created a model of known reserves, and proposed, in 1956, in a paper he presented [1] at a meeting of the American Petroleum Institute, that oil production in the continental United States would peak between 1965 and 1970; and that world production would peak in 2000.
U.S. oil production peaked in 1971 [2], and has been decreasing since then. Global production did not peak in 2000, but Hubbert's model did not account for the 1973 and 1979 OPEC oil shocks, which effectively reduced global demand for oil and delayed the peak.
Colin Campbell of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil&Gas(ASPO) has calculated that the global production of conventional oil peaked in the Spring of 2004 albeit at a rate of 23-GB/yr, not Hubbert's 13-GB/yr.
Given that oil is a non-renewable resource, it is inevitable that at some point there will be a similar peak in worldwide oil production. Hubbert's theory is that the same calculations that successfully predicted the peak in oil production in the USA would apply to other circumstances, such as the peak in worldwide oil production. Various estimates for the worldwide peak have been made by Hubbert and others, with some of these dates already having passed. This has led to criticism of the method and predictions made using the method.
Hubbert's peak theory is subject to continued discussion because of the potential effects of lowered oil production, and because of the ongoing debate over aspects of energy policy. Opinions on the effect of passing
Hubbert's peak range from faith that the market economy will produce a solution to predictions of doomsday scenarios of a global economy unable to meet its energy needs. (See Implications section, below)
Some oil industry executives, economists, and analysts doubt that Hubbert's peak theory applies on a global scale. However, Chevron has launched the Will You Join Us? ad campaign, seeking to inform the public to the possibility of oil depletion and encourage discussion. The campaign's website notes findings from the International Energy Agency's
(IEA) World Energy Outlook 2004: "Fossil fuels currently supply most of the worlds energy, and are expected to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. While supplies are currently abundant, they wont last forever. Oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries, ..."
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