Just for fun I fit a curve to the three rate of melt listed below The formula that fit the curve on the conservative side was X^1/2+X =Y this places the rate at 16.4% in five years. THIS IS SCARY STUFF!!!
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: >Byline: BY BOB WEBER > >The ocean area covered by Arctic sea ice last summer >was as low as it's ever been, according to a newly >released study. >And the rate of melting gets faster every year, >suggesting that a self-perpetuating warming cycle >predicted by climate change models is already at >work, said the data released by the main American >centre for ice studies. >``Sea ice is not doing well and it has not recovered >and it doesn't appear that it is going to recover,'' said >Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data >Centre in Boulder, Colo. >Global warming is so far having its most dramatic >effects in the North, so Arctic sea ice is considered to >be one of the most important indicators of climate >change. >The ice also plays an important role in global climate >because it affects the delicate balance of ocean >salinity and temperature. >As well, it's crucial for everything from polar bears >who depend on the floe edge for much of their >hunting to shippers on the lookout for more efficient >routes between ports. >Serreze's group uses data from satellites and weather >stations to monitor the Arctic ice cap. Every fall, >around mid-September, the centre releases a snapshot >at the end of the summer melting season of what is >called the sea ice minimum. >This year's minimum, which occurred Sept. 14, >showed the fourth-lowest extent of sea ice on a single >day in 29 years of satellite records. >When the entire month of September was considered, >the amount of ocean either ice-covered or ice-choked >was the second lowest on record. Only 2005 was >lower. >And when only ice-covered ocean was measured, >2006 tied the worst year ever. >``We just ran the numbers this morning,'' Serreze said >Tuesday. ``It looks like we're in a dead tie with >2002.'' >The study also found that the ice is melting faster >than ever. >>From 1979 to 2001, Arctic ice shrunk at the rate of >6.5 per cent per decade. After 2002, that pace rose to >7.3 per cent. >By last year, the world was losing about eight per >cent of its ice per decade. Now, the speed is 8.6 per >cent. >The accelerating rate conforms with what scientists >call feedback loops. >Dark, open seas absorb the sunlight that white ice >would have reflected, so warming speeds up the more >ice melts. As well, open seas generate more cloud >cover, blanketing the ocean during the long Arctic >winter and preventing temperatures from falling to >normal levels. >``These feedbacks are starting to kick in,'' said >Serreze. ``I'm not terribly optimistic about the future >of the ice.'' >If current trends hold, Arctic ice will be largely gone >by 2060 _ a full decade earlier than the most >pessimistic previous predictions, he suggested. >Most of the ice losses are concentrated off Russia's >Siberian coast. >Winds and currents tend to push ice into Canada's >High Arctic islands, so coverage there is only >shrinking at 1.6 per cent per a decade, said John >Falkingham, chief forecaster for the Canadian Ice >Service. >``We expect that the last ice that will remain in the >Arctic Ocean will be in Canadian waters,'' >Falkingham said. ``The Northwest Passage will be >the last place the ice will melt out of.'' >While ice conditions can vary wildly from year to >year, Falkingham said the overall trend is clear. >``We're seeing decreasing amounts.'' >This September saw the second-lowest amount of ice >in the Canadian Arctic, he said. Only 1998 had less. > >Copyright (c) 2006 The Canadian Press > > >_______________________________________________ >Biofuel mailing list >Biofuel@sustainablelists.org >http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org > >Biofuel at Journey to Forever: >http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html > >Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): >http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/ > > > _______________________________________________ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
