[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
> Hello Alan and all

Hello, Keith.

>>> but, supposing it were the best approach available, that still only
>> matters to those who share your clarke-ian view of the "importance" of
>> "stepping beyond the cradle."
> 
>> Granted, but I suspect you'll find there are a lot of us.  Notably,
>> Peter Diamandis, who's stated goal is to get there before NASA, and do
>> it with private funds.
> 
> 
> How many of us is a lot? 

Just off the top of my head I couldn't tell you.  I know my perception 
of it is skewed because of my involvement with the science fiction 
community, which is a hotbed of the Clarkian view.  This past July I 
went to the Robert A. Heinlein Centennial, and I was in the room with at 
least 400 of them.  That was the highest concentration of PHD's I've 
ever been in, and I'm not ashamed to say I was the dimbulb in the room.

> Maybe it's our noble destiny to go to Mars. But
> maybe we should get our house in order first before we go travelling.

Can't we do both at the same time?  Are there not brains enough to go 
around for that?

> This, in a world of plenty:
> 
> Among the 4.4 billion people who live in developing countries:
> • THREE-FIFTHS have no access to basic sanitation
> • Almost ONE-THIRD are without safe drinking water
> • ONE-QUARTER lack adequate housing
> • ONE-FIFTH live beyond reach of modern health services
> • ONE-FIFTH of the children do not get as far as grade five in school
> • ONE-FIFTH are undernourished

I understand that, and I'm not saying it isn't a problem.  It is.

> The reason the poor are so poor is that the rich are so rich, and they're
> so good at looking the other way.

Granted.

> Basic education for all would cost $6 BILLION a year:

I'm not sure of that figure, Keith.  We spend half a billion dollars on 
education here in the state of Florida, USA alone.

> • $8 BILLION is spent annually for cosmetics in the United States alone.

I'm actually kind of surprised it's that low.

> Installation of water and sanitation for all would cost $9 BILLION plus
> some annual costs:
> • $11 BILLION is spent annually on ice cream in Europe.

Now _there's_ a worthwhile expenditure if ever I saw one!  ;-)

> Reproductive health services for all women would cost $12 BILLION a year:
> • $12 BILLION a year is spent on perfumes in Europe and the United States.
> 
> Basic health care and nutrition would cost $13 BILLION:
> • $17 BILLION a year is spent on pet food in Europe and the United States;
> • $35 BILLION is spent on business entertainment in Japan;

Again, I'm surprised it's that low.

> • $50 BILLION on cigarettes in Europe;
> • $105 BILLION on alcoholic drinks in Europe;
> • $400 BILLION on narcotic drugs around the world; and

One of the ideas that H. Beam Piper, among others, have postulated is 
that no matter where in the universe mankind goes four crops will follow 
him: Wheat, rice, coffee, and tobacco.  I suppose you could add tea, 
marijuana and opium to that list, and probably coca as well.

> • $780 BILLION on the world's militaries.

Now _there's_ a waste!

> And it's mostly sheer waste. We all know deep in our hearts, or even not
> so deep, that increased consumption doesn't make us happy and fulfilled as
> promised, it leaves us unhappy and dissatisfied, as intended. And sod the
> victims.

Indeed.

> As long as this situation prevails we have no noble destiny ahead of us.
> Until it's resolved we have no nobility, we're a disgrace, and our only
> destiny is sore travail.

I disagree, Keith.  I don't think it has to be an either-or thing or a 
first-then-later thing.  I think both can be done at the same time.  In 
fact I think both _must_ be done at the same time.

Sooner or later we will go to Mars.  I expect we'll do it within the 
next half century.  The major question is what language the astronauts 
will be speaking, English, Russian, or Mandarin?

> How much did you say it'll cost to go to Mars?

The most efficient plan is Robert Zubrin's Mars Semi-Direct mission, 
which would take an estimated 45 billion in 2005 dollars, spread over 
about ten years.  It's cheap enough that Micro$oft could finance it 
tomorrow without breaking the bank, if they were sufficiently motivated 
to do so.


AP


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