Wow! Great analysis I never realized it but I may be "payback period" gifted :)
W/O reading anything about analysis of payback period, I picked #1 followed closely by #3, with #2 a distant third. Reasoning: -Replacing/building with existing parts and within one's ability to succeed (#s 1 & 3) vs (#2) hauling a refrigerator 45 minutes each way on two round trips to have the refrigerant removed before spending an additional 16 hours of time removing, installing, modifying. #1: A morning or afternoon or evening project w. little/no cash outlay to repair something you know works. #3: A good day project; $100 for materials on a proven technology vs #2: 2 mornings/afternoons travelling 2 good days' work $180 additional in materials, fuel and services. My thinking generally goes: - will it work? - can I do it? - will it decrease my demand for fossil fuels? - can I afford it? Thinking my way, and if I had the ability, I would do all three projects you mentioned, doing #2 then #3 (as this is summer) and complete #1 as cool weather approached. I know there is value in analysis -----> payback period, and I know that I am stubborn, but if everyone who could afford solar or wind "capture" systems did so, the prices would come down so that more could afford, etc. Thanks for all you do, Tom > Thanks Tom for the opportunity to focus some thoughts in > need of some > mental herding. > > Suppose I have 3 not-so-hypothetical projects available to > me, and I > need to decide which to tackle first. (Invalid > assumptions used for > simplicity of the exercise: I have the time; additional > manpower is > available for free from other household members; no parts > are made of > unobtainium.) All should reduce carbon emissions > slightly, but I'm not > taking the relative GHG values into account. > > 1) Solar heating system repair. > > The blower motor on my existing system caught fire last > fall. Due to > good luck and some good design, no damage to anything > other than the > electric motor. I now have a surplus furnace fan motor > on-hand which > looks like a reasonable substitute. > > Estimated cost of project: 4 hours of my time (let's call > it $25/hour > due to no taxes on work I do for myself). > > Estimated return: about $200 annually of heating fuel. > > Risk: motor may not fit, solution may not work - assign > 50% probability. > > Payback period: 1 year [($100 deemed labour cost / > ($200/year fuel > saving x 50% success probability)] > > 2) Solar water heater rebuild > > The insulating box for my batch solar water heater rotted > out a few > years ago. It saved me about 6 months of water heating > fuel a year. We > are about to replace our refrigerator, and I think the old > one (which > has multiple issues) could make a good candidate > replacement box. I > have the donor fridge on hand, and a piece of thermo-pane > tempered glass > that looks about the right size as the collector glazing > (measurements > are required, but I'm feeling optimistic this morning). > > Estimated cost of project: > a) take fridge to appliance service depot, have > refrigerant removed by > authorized personnel (estimate $60), return to pickup the > emptied unit > ($20 vehicle fuel for 2 round trips, 3 hours travel time @ > $25/hour) > $155 > b) labour to remove unwanted parts, add insulation, modify > door to > accept thermo-pane glass, fit new hardware, install tank > (16 hours @ > $25) > $400 > c) additional hardware, insulation, reflective material, > paint > $100 > Total: $655 > > Estimated return: $120/year > > Risk: glass may not fit - assume 95% chance of success > > Payback period: 5.2 years [($655 x .95) / $120/year] > > 3) Temporary PV panel install > > My son is storing a number of PV panels in my back yard > which he won at > auction, plus I have 2 surplus golf-car batteries (about 1 > kWh storage) > and a 1000-watt true-sine inverter (for use in power > outages). If I > build a frame to carry the panels in my sun-facing back > yard, I can > create some summer shading and take my freezers off-grid. > (Additional > assumption - son won't need at least 6 of the panels for > at least 4 > years based on current life plan.) > > Estimated cost: 8 hours design, construction and wiring > ($200), plus > $100 in framing materials, cabling, connectors, etc. > > $300 > > Estimated return: $91.25/ year (0.6 kWh/day x 365 days/yr > x $0.15/kWh) > > Payback period: 3.3 years [$300 / $91.25/year] > > Sadly, the project that most excites me (#2) has the worst > payback of > the 3. Payback period says project #1 should be my > priority, with #3 > getting second place on the 'todo' list. In fact, the > payback on #2 is > so bad, I'm now considering putting the seasonal water > pre-heater at a > seasonal residence, where it will be a better match > (supply/demand), and > could put off another upgrade (antique small electric > water heater) at > that location currently estimated at $500 initial outlay, > and about $15 > a month (4 months/ year). > > [Project 4: rebuild solar water heater for seasonal > property) > > Estimate cost: $700 ($655 from #2 above, additional fuel > and install costs) > > Estimate return: $500 deferred other expenditure + > $60/year > > Payback: 3.2 years [($700 - $500) x .95 / $60/year] > > Project 4 - invented in the course of this exercise, is > now the 2nd > priority based on payback period (but eliminates Project 2 > due to > resource constraint - only parts for one solar water > heater on hand). > > 2 of the projects reduce heating fuel consumption, and 2 > reduce > electricity consumption, but I can compare them based on > dollars as a > common unit. Try to be fair and honest in building your > assumptions to > get a useful result. Payback period likely won't be your > only tool in > prioritizing projects, but I find it useful. > > I hope this helps. > > Darryl > > On 25/06/2014 8:29 AM, Thomas Kelly wrote: >> Hello Darryl, >> >> You wrote: Personally, I love 'payback period' as a >> means >> of ranking different alternative projects open to me, >> ..... >> >> Out of curiosity, could you give an example? >> Maybe I should rethink how I do things. >> Tom >> >>> Hi Thomas, >>> >>> sadly, such examples are still sufficiently rare that >>> they >>> still >>> constitute news, and small enough they only warrant >>> local >>> coverage if >>> any at all. When I find these nuggets, I like to >>> share, >>> in hopes they >>> will inspire other 'small' victories. >>> >>> Regarding the math, I think the reporter jumbled 2 >>> things >>> together which >>> create confusion. My reading is that Mr. Sperling >>> figures >>> a $50,000 >>> investment will allow him to produce most of his >>> electricity and recoup >>> his investment in about 2 years from avoided utility >>> costs. The >>> reporter doesn't spell that out before shifting >>> conversation to the U.S. >>> Vegawatt example, which only proposes to provide 10-25% >>> of >>> the power >>> used by their example customer restaurant (not Mr. >>> Sperling's operation). >>> >>> Personally, I love 'payback period' as a means of >>> ranking >>> different >>> alternative projects open to me, but it isn't the only >>> factor that bears >>> on my decisions (personal interest, satisfaction, >>> learning >>> potential, >>> ease of implementation, risk factors, impacts on >>> existing >>> situation and >>> others are at least as important). There has to be >>> some >>> way to put a >>> value on beauty (not necessarily in dollars), or we >>> would >>> not build art >>> galleries or put up pictures on our walls. >>> >>> Darryl >>> >>> On 17/06/2014 9:25 AM, Thomas Kelly wrote: >>>> Darryl, >>>> Thanks for articles such as these. It's nice to >>>> hear >>>> about people who do things. They talk, they listen, >>>> but >>>> ultimately they act. Whether it's putting something to >>>> work that they would otherwise discard, or >>>> about someone who scratches in the dirt to grow food >>>> they will eat, without first poisoning it. >>>> >>>> I have a problem with the term "payback period". >>>> >>>> We don't ask about "payback period" when we go on >>>> vacation, or buy a car with all the options. Does >>>> the gardener really calculate the payback period for >>>> the time and cost of planting and tending the garden? >>>> Why would anyone plant flower beds? >>>> My experience is that "payback period" is often >>>> used >>>> an >>>> excuse for inaction. Blessings to those who read, >>>> listen and learn, calculate feasibility and then act >>>> with >>>> the understanding that sustainability is the goal and >>>> joy >>>> is part of the payoff. >>>> >>>> Actually another problem: >>>> Article states that: >>>> -cost will be about $50,000 >>>> -savings will be about $10,000/year ($900/mo) >>>> -payback will be within 2 years >>>> >>>> Are there tax incentives or is this a simple >>>> miscalculation as it would seem that payback would be >>>> about 5 years at their savings. >>>> (Nothing wrong with a 5 year payback as a diesel >>>> generator will live long past that) >>>> >>>> Thanks again, >>>> Tom >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>> http://www.leaderpost.com/life/Restaurateur+energized+veggie/9935141/story.html >>>>> >>>>> Regina restaurateur energized by old veggie oil >>>>> >>>>> By Natascia Lypny, The Leader-Post June 13, 2014 >>>>> >>>>> A Regina restaurateur thinks the leftover grease from >>>>> french fries, fish >>>>> and chips, and other greasy goodies could be the >>>> solution >>>>> to >>>>> Saskatchewan's power grid strain. >>>>> >>>>> Adam Sperling, owner of La Bodega and Slow Pub, >>>> envisions >>>>> a Regina >>>>> powered by restaurants' waste vegetable oil. >>>>> >>>>> "Right now all that is, is a drain on power," he said >>>>> of >>>>> the city's >>>>> expanding restaurant scene. "It's draining our grid. >>>>> We >>>>> can turn that >>>>> into a power resource." >>>>> >>>>> The Environment Advisory Committee member plans to >>>>> bring >>>>> forward a >>>>> motion that the city conduct a feasibility study >>>> involving >>>>> a pilot >>>>> project of vegetable oil electricity generation at >>>>> three >>>>> locations of >>>>> varying size. Thursday's committee meeting was >>>> cancelled, >>>>> but Sperling >>>>> plans to bring the motion up the next time the >>>>> committee >>>>> sits. >>>>> >>>>> It's an idea the restaurateur has been picking away >>>>> at >>>> for >>>>> a decade. >>>>> According to his research, a generator would cost >>>> $50,000 >>>>> installed. In >>>>> a restaurant with one deep fryer, such as La Bodega, >>>>> the >>>>> generator would >>>>> pay for itself within two years, then practically nix >>>> the >>>>> restaurant's >>>>> power bill, said Sperling. >>>>> >>>>> His vision for the generator is ambitious. Vegawatt, >>>>> a >>>>> similar machine >>>>> developed by a Massachusetts company, advertises >>>>> itself >>>> as >>>>> providing >>>>> 10-25 per cent of a restaurant's power and cutting >>>>> its >>>>> monthly power >>>>> bill by $890. No examples of such a product exist in >>>>> Canada. >>>>> >>>>> Currently, waste vegetable oil is picked up from >>>>> restaurants, then >>>>> reused for cosmetics, biodiesel and on roads to >>>>> control >>>>> dust. >>>>> >>>>> Sperling hopes the pilot leads to the eventual >>>>> installation of >>>>> generators at all Regina restaurants and food vendors >>>> with >>>>> two or more >>>>> deep fryers. >>>>> >>>>> "This is an opportunity for Regina and for SaskPower >>>>> to >>>> be >>>>> leaders and >>>>> innovators in recycling and being sustainable, and >>>>> relieving the power >>>>> grid of so much stress," he said. >>>>> >>>>> SaskPower's grid is currently strained under the >>>> pressures >>>>> of increased >>>>> demand due to a growing population and the age of the >>>>> infrastructure. >>>>> Its sections average 30 to 50 years old, said >>>>> spokesman >>>>> Tyler Hopson. >>>>> "At the current time, expanding our generation fleet >>>>> is >>>>> something >>>>> SaskPower is interested in doing, something we have >>>>> to >>>> do >>>>> as the >>>>> province grows in terms of population and demand for >>>> power >>>>> increases," >>>>> he said, adding the situation's not critical. >>>>> >>>>> Sperling's idea is far from fruition. He hasn't >>>> developed >>>>> the machine, >>>>> nor discussed it with SaskPower. The corporation, >>>> though, >>>>> is open to >>>>> innovation, said Hopson. While he couldn't comment on >>>> this >>>>> particular >>>>> idea, Hopson said SaskPower accepts unsolicited >>>> proposals. >>>>> It also has a >>>>> Small Power Producers Program by which people can >>>> generate >>>>> electricity >>>>> either to offset their own bill or to sell to >>>>> SaskPower. >>>>> _______________________________________________ >>>>> Sustainablelorgbiofuel mailing list >>>>> Sustainablelorgbiofuel@lists.sustainablelists.org >>>>> http://lists.eruditium.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/sustainablelorgbiofuel >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> _______________________________________________ >>>> Sustainablelorgbiofuel mailing list >>>> Sustainablelorgbiofuel@lists.sustainablelists.org >>>> http://lists.eruditium.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/sustainablelorgbiofuel >>>> >>> >>> -- >>> Darryl McMahon >>> Project Manager, >>> Common Assessment and Referral for Enhanced Support >>> Services (CARESS) >>> _______________________________________________ >>> Sustainablelorgbiofuel mailing list >>> Sustainablelorgbiofuel@lists.sustainablelists.org >>> http://lists.eruditium.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/sustainablelorgbiofuel >>> >> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> Sustainablelorgbiofuel mailing list >> Sustainablelorgbiofuel@lists.sustainablelists.org >> http://lists.eruditium.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/sustainablelorgbiofuel >> > > -- > Darryl McMahon > Project Manager, > Common Assessment and Referral for Enhanced Support > Services (CARESS) > _______________________________________________ > Sustainablelorgbiofuel mailing list > Sustainablelorgbiofuel@lists.sustainablelists.org > http://lists.eruditium.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/sustainablelorgbiofuel > _______________________________________________ Sustainablelorgbiofuel mailing list Sustainablelorgbiofuel@lists.sustainablelists.org http://lists.eruditium.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/sustainablelorgbiofuel