http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/27615-malarkey-on-the-potomac-five-bedrock-washington-assumptions-that-are-hot-air#
[multiple links in on-line article]
Malarkey on the Potomac: Five Bedrock Washington Assumptions That Are
Hot Air
Monday, 24 November 2014 10:23 By Andrew Bacevich, TomDispatch | Op-Ed
"Iraq no longer exists." My young friend M, sipping a cappuccino, is
deadly serious. We are sitting in a scruffy restaurant across the street
from the Cathedral of St. John the Divine on Manhattan's Upper West
Side. It's been years since we've last seen each another. It may be
years before our paths cross again. As if to drive his point home, M
repeats himself: "Iraq just doesn't exist."
His is an opinion grounded in experience. As an enlisted soldier, he
completed two Iraq tours, serving as a member of a rifle company, before
and during the famous Petraeus "surge." After separating from the Army,
he went on to graduate school where he is now writing a dissertation on
insurgencies. Choosing the American war in Iraq as one of his cases, M
has returned there to continue his research. Indeed, he was heading
back again that very evening. As a researcher, his perch provides him
with an excellent vantage point for taking stock of the ongoing crisis,
now that the Islamic State, or IS, has made it impossible for Americans
to sustain the pretense that the Iraq War ever ended.
Few in Washington would endorse M's assertion, of course. Inside the
Beltway, policymakers, politicians, and pundits take Iraq's existence
for granted. Many can even locate it on a map. They also take for
granted the proposition that it is incumbent upon the United States to
preserve that existence. To paraphrase Chris Hedges, for a certain group
of Americans, Iraq is the cause that gives life meaning. For the
military-industrial complex, it's the gift that keeps on giving.
Considered from this perspective, the "Iraqi government" actually
governs, the "Iraqi army" is a nationally representative fighting force,
and the "Iraqi people" genuinely see themselves as constituting a
community with a shared past and an imaginable future.
Arguably, each of these propositions once contained a modicum of truth.
But when the United States invaded Iraq in 2003 and, as then-Secretary
of State Colin Powell predicted, broke the place, any merit they
previously possessed quickly dissipated. Years of effort by American
occupiers intent on creating a new Iraq out of the ruins of the old
produced little of value and next to nothing that has lasted. Yet even
today, in Washington the conviction persists that trying harder might
somehow turn things around. Certainly, that conviction informs the
renewed U.S. military intervention prompted by the rise of IS.
So when David Ignatius, a well-informed and normally sober columnist for
the Washington Post, reflects on what the United States must do to get
Iraq War 3.0 right, he offers this "mental checklist": in Baghdad, the
U.S. should foster a "cleaner, less sectarian government"; to ensure
security, we will have to "rebuild the military"; and to end internal
factionalism, we're going to have to find ways to "win Kurdish support"
and "rebuild trust with Sunnis." Ignatius does not pretend that any of
this will be easy. He merely argues that it must be -- and by
implication can be -- done. Unlike my friend M, Ignatius clings to the
fantasy that "Iraq" is or ought to be politically viable, militarily
capable, and socially cohesive. But surely this qualifies as wishful
thinking.
The value of M's insight -- of, that is, otherwise intelligent people
purporting to believe in things that don't exist -- can be applied well
beyond American assumptions about Iraq. A similar inclination to
fantasize permeates, and thereby warps, U.S. policies throughout much of
the Greater Middle East. Consider the following claims, each of which
in Washington circles has attained quasi-canonical status.
* The presence of U.S. forces in the Islamic world contributes to
regional stability and enhances American influence.
* The Persian Gulf constitutes a vital U.S. national security interest.
* Egypt and Saudi Arabia are valued and valuable American allies.
* The interests of the United States and Israel align.
* Terrorism poses an existential threat that the United States must defeat.
For decades now, the first four of these assertions have formed the
foundation of U.S. policy in the Middle East. The events of 9/11 added
the fifth, without in any way prompting a reconsideration of the first
four. On each of these matters, no senior U.S. official (or anyone
aspiring to a position of influence) will dare say otherwise, at least
not on the record.
Yet subjected to even casual scrutiny, none of the five will stand up.
To take them at face value is the equivalent of believing in Santa Claus
or the Tooth Fairy -- or that John Boehner and Mitch McConnell really,
really hope that the Obama administration and the upcoming
Republican-controlled Congress can find grounds to cooperate.
Let's examine all five, one at a time.
The Presence of U.S. Forces: Ever since the U.S. intervention in Lebanon
that culminated in the Beirut bombing of October 1983, introducing
American troops into predominantly Muslim countries has seldom
contributed to stability. On more than a few occasions, doing so has
produced just the opposite effect.
Iraq and Afghanistan provide mournful examples. The new book "Why We
Lost" by retired Lieutenant General Daniel Bolger finally makes it
permissible in official circles to declare those wars the failures that
they have been. Even granting, for the sake of argument, that U.S.
nation-building efforts were as pure and honorable as successive
presidents portrayed them, the results have been more corrosive than
constructive. The IS militants plaguing Iraq find their counterpart in
the soaring production of opium that plagues Afghanistan. This qualifies
as stability?
And these are hardly the only examples. Stationing U.S. troops in Saudi
Arabia after Operation Desert Storm was supposed to have a reassuring
effect. Instead, it produced the debacle of the devastating Khobar
Towers bombing. Sending G.I.'s into Somalia back in 1992 was supposed
to demonstrate American humanitarian concern for poor, starving Muslims.
Instead, it culminated in the embarrassing Mogadishu firefight, which
gained the sobriquet Black Hawk Down, and doomed that mission.
Even so, the pretense that positioning American soldiers in some Middle
East hotspot will bring calm to troubled waters survives. It's far more
accurate to say that doing so provides our adversaries with what
soldiers call a target-rich environment -- with Americans as the targets.
The Importance of the Persian Gulf: Although U.S. interests in the Gulf
may once have qualified as vital, the changing global energy picture has
rendered that view obsolete. What's probably bad news for the
environment is good news in terms of creating strategic options for the
United States. New technologies have once again made the United States
the world's largest producer of oil. The U.S. is also the world's
largest producer of natural gas. It turns out that the lunatics
chanting "drill, baby, drill" were right after all. Or perhaps it's
"frack, baby, frack." Regardless, the assumed energy dependence and
"vital interests" that inspired Jimmy Carter to declare back in 1980
that the Gulf is worth fighting for no longer pertain.
Access to Gulf oil remains critically important to some countries, but
surely not to the United States. When it comes to propping up the
wasteful and profligate American way of life, Texas and North Dakota
outrank Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in terms of importance. Rather than
worrying about Iraqi oil production, Washington would be better served
ensuring the safety and well-being of Canada, with its bountiful
supplies of shale oil. And if militarists ever find the itch to
increase U.S. oil reserves becoming irresistible, they would be better
advised to invade Venezuela than to pick a fight with Iran.
Does the Persian Gulf require policing from the outside? Maybe. But if
so, let's volunteer China for the job. It will keep them out of mischief.
Arab Allies: It's time to reclassify the U.S. relationship with both
Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Categorizing these two important Arab states as
"allies" is surely misleading. Neither one shares the values to which
Washington professes to attach such great importance.
For decades, Saudi Arabia, Planet Earth's closest equivalent to an
absolute monarchy, has promoted anti-Western radical jihadism -- and not
without effect. The relevant numbers here are two that most New Yorkers
will remember: 15 out of 19. If a conspiracy consisting almost entirely
of Russians had succeeded in killing several thousand Americans, would
U.S. authorities give the Kremlin a pass? Would U.S.-Russian relations
remain unaffected? The questions answer themselves.
Meanwhile, after a brief dalliance with democracy, Egypt has once again
become what it was before: a corrupt, oppressive military dictatorship
unworthy of the billions of dollars of military assistance that
Washington provides from one year to the next.
Israel: The United States and Israel share more than a few interests in
common. A commitment to a "two-state solution" to the Palestinian
problem does not number among them. On that issue, Washington's and Tel
Aviv's purposes diverge widely. In all likelihood, they are irreconcilable.
For the government of Israel, viewing security concerns as paramount, an
acceptable Palestinian state will be the equivalent of an Arab
Bantustan, basically defenseless, enjoying limited sovereignty, and
possessing limited minimum economical potential. Continuing Israeli
encroachments on the occupied territories, undertaken in the teeth of
American objections, make this self-evident.
It is, of course, entirely the prerogative -- and indeed the obligation
-- of the Israeli government to advance the well being of its citizens.
U.S. officials have a similar obligation: they are called upon to act
on behalf of Americans. And that means refusing to serve as Israel's
enablers when that country takes actions that are contrary to U.S.
interests.
The "peace process" is a fiction. Why should the United States persist
in pretending otherwise? It's demeaning.
Terrorism: Like crime and communicable diseases, terrorism will always
be with us. In the face of an outbreak of it, prompt, effective action
to reduce the danger permits normal life to continue. Wisdom lies in
striking a balance between the actually existing threat and exertions
undertaken to deal with that threat. Grown-ups understand this. They
don't expect a crime rate of zero in American cities. They don't expect
all people to enjoy perfect health all of the time. The standard they
seek is "tolerable."
That terrorism threatens Americans is no doubt the case, especially when
they venture into the Greater Middle East. But aspirations to eliminate
terrorism belong in the same category as campaigns to end illiteracy or
homelessness: it's okay to aim high, but don't be surprised when the
results achieved fall short.
Eliminating terrorism is a chimera. It's not going to happen. U.S.
civilian and military leaders should summon the honesty to acknowledge this.
My friend M has put his finger on a problem that is much larger than he
grasps. Here's hoping that when he gets his degree he lands an academic
job. It's certain he'll never find employment in our nation's capital.
As a soldier-turned-scholar, M inhabits what one of George W. Bush's
closest associates (believed to be Karl Rove) once derisively referred
to as the "reality-based community." People in Washington don't have
time for reality. They're lost in a world of their own.
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