I'm reading /The Limits to Growth/ (30 Year Update) by Meadows, et al again, but with my older kids this time around. The role delays play in the computer modeling of overshoot cannot be stressed enough, though I'm not sure how complex societies can avoid them. Relocalization is our best hope, I think.
-- Katie Q-J www.PreparedTompkins.org [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: > Hello Friends, > > I don't know about you, but even though I knew this was coming, I find > myself shocked by how quickly food shortages have developed across the > planet. On > this warm Earth Day, I am grateful for the work of so many in building up > our local food system. The news that Japan, though warned, has not prepared > itself in any meaningful way to address its vulnerable food supply should be > recognized as a shiny mirror reflecting upon our own country's slow response > to > so many critical issues. > > Gay > > > Japan's hunger becomes a dire warning for other nations > > Business the Age.com > Food fears: Being a rich nation is no protection > for Japan, which faces the fallout of relying too > heavily on foreign food to supply domestic needs. > > * Justin Norrie, Tokyo > * April 21, 2008 > * Page 1 of 2 > > MARIKO Watanabe admits she could have chosen a > better time to take up baking. This week, when > the Tokyo housewife visited her local Ito-Yokado > supermarket to buy butter to make a cake, she found the shelves bare. > > "I went to another supermarket, and then another, > and there was no butter at those either. > Everywhere I went there were notices saying Japan > has run out of butter. I couldn't believe it - > this is the first time in my life I've wanted to > try baking cakes and I can't get any butter," said the frustrated cook. > > Japan's acute butter shortage, which has > confounded bakeries, restaurants and now families > across the country, is the latest unforeseen > result of the global agricultural commodities crisis. > > A sharp increase in the cost of imported cattle > feed and a decline in milk imports, both of which > are typically provided in large part by > Australia, have prevented dairy farmers from keeping pace with demand. > > While soaring food prices have triggered rioting > among the starving millions of the third world, > in wealthy Japan they have forced a pampered > population to contemplate the shocking > possibility of a long-term - perhaps permanent - > reduction in the quality and quantity of its food. > > A 130% rise in the global cost of wheat in the > past year, caused partly by surging demand from > China and India and a huge injection of > speculative funds into wheat futures, has forced > the Government to hit flour millers with three > rounds of stiff mark-ups. The latest - a 30% > increase this month - has given rise to > speculation that Japan, which relies on imports > for 90% of its annual wheat consumption, is no > longer on the brink of a food crisis, but has fallen off the cliff. > > According to one government poll, 80% of Japanese > are frightened about what the future holds for their food supply. > > Last week, as the prices of wheat and barley > continued their relentless climb, the Japanese > Government discovered it had exhausted its ¥230 > billion ($A2.37 billion) budget for the grains > with two months remaining. It was forced to call > on an emergency ¥55 billion reserve to ensure it > could continue feeding the nation. > > "This was the first time the Government has had > to take such drastic action since the war," said > Akio Shibata, an expert on food imports, who > warned the Agriculture Ministry two years ago > that Japan would have to cut back drastically on > its sophisticated diet if it did not become more self-sufficient. > > In the wake of the decision this week by > Kazakhstan, the world's fifth biggest wheat > exporter, to join Russia, Ukraine and Argentina > in stopping exports to satisfy domestic demand, > the situation in Japan is expected to worsen. > > Bakeries, forced to increase prices by up to 30% > in the past year, are warning that the trend will > continue. Manufacturers of miso, a culinary > staple, are preparing to pass on the bump in > costs caused by the rising price of soybeans and > cooking oil. And the nation's largest brewer, > Kirin, is lifting beer prices for the first time > in almost two decades to account for the soaring cost of barley. > > "In the past, Japan was a rich country with a > powerful yen that could easily buy cheap imports > such as wheat, corn and soybeans," said Mr > Shibata, who directs the Marubeni Research > Institute in Tokyo. "But with enormous > competition from the booming Chinese and Indian > economies, that's changed forever. You also need > to take into account recent developments, > including the damage to crops caused by drought > and other disasters in exporting countries like > Australia," where the value of wheat exports has > tumbled from $3.49 billion to $2.77 billion in the past three years. > > The situation has been compounded by a surge in > demand for bio-fuels such as ethanol, made from > maize, encouraging farmers around the world to > divert their efforts away from wheat and barley > and into maize, further driving up prices. > > Arguably Japan's biggest concern, however, is its > weakening ability to sustain its population with > domestic produce. In 2006 the country's > self-sufficiency rate fell to 39%, according to > the Agriculture Ministry. It was only the second > time since the ministry began keeping records in > 1960 that the population derived less than 40% of > its daily calorie intake from domestically grown food. > > Shinichi Shogenji, dean of the University of > Tokyo's graduate school of agricultural and life > sciences, said Japan's meat consumption had > increased by 900% since 1955, in part because > expanding incomes had enabled families to > supplement the sparse national diet of rice, fish > and miso soup with more Western-style food. > > This trend, combined with rapid ageing and > declining rural populations, had placed the > country's self-sufficiency at a perilously low level, Professor Shogenji > said. > > In view of recent predictions by Goldman Sachs > analysts that commodities could experience > "explosive rallies" in the next two years, many > are wondering if Japan could become an example to > other rich nations that have relied too much on > foreign supplies to put food on their tables. > > http://business.theage.com.au/japans-hunger-becomes-a-dire-warning-for-other-n > ations/20080420-27ey.html?page=1 > ---------------------------------------------------- > Gay Nicholson, Ph.D. > > 607-533-7312 (home office) > 607-279-6618 (cell) > > 1 Maple Avenue > Lansing, NY 14882 > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > Sustainable Tompkins > Program Coordinator > w_ww.sustainabletompkins.org_ (http://www.sustainabletompkins.org/) > > Southern Tier Energy$mart Communities > Regional Coordinator > Cornell Cooperative Extension of Tompkins County > 615 Willow Ave., Ithaca, NY 14850 > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > **************Need a new ride? Check out the largest site for U.S. used car > listings at AOL Autos. > (http://autos.aol.com/used?NCID=aolcmp00300000002851) > _______________________________________________ > For more information about sustainability in the Tompkins County area, please > visit: http://www.sustainabletompkins.org/ > > RSS, archives, subscription & listserv information for: > [email protected] > http://lists.mutualaid.org/mailman/listinfo/sustainabletompkins > free hosting by http://www.mutualaid.org > > _______________________________________________ For more information about sustainability in the Tompkins County area, please visit: http://www.sustainabletompkins.org/ RSS, archives, subscription & listserv information for: [email protected] http://lists.mutualaid.org/mailman/listinfo/sustainabletompkins free hosting by http://www.mutualaid.org
