Aside from a shrinking number of holdouts (notably Exxon, British Petroleum, and the U.S. Department of Energy), it's now widely accepted in the industry that global oil production will begin to fall irreversibly behind global demand somewhere between 2013 and 2015. This just-released UK study explains why:
http://peakoil.solarcentury.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/oil-report-final.pdf The coming deviation of the petroleum supply and demand curves is unprecedented in human history and of a different order of significance than that of recent price fluctuations. Opinions on the effect of this development differ and are not examined in depth in this paper, but there is general agreement that the impact upon the world economy and standard of living will be catastrophic. The probable consequences are far greater than the overall impact of climate change over the next few decades (though most of the mitigation strategies are the same). It is important to understand that the problem is one of flow rates, not reserves; arguments over the amount remaining in the ground are basically irrelevant. The current financial crisis has momentarily depressed demand, but the lack of capital for new projects will exacerbate the projected decline in rate of extraction and may well move the inflection point even earlier than the 2013-2015 time frame. In the U.S., the best-case scenario is the immediate implementation by the incoming Obama administration of the strategies recommended in the study. But in any case, we're in for a radical restructuring of our current way of life, beginning with limitations on our ability to travel or commute and later extending to the availability of basic commodities, food in particular. I recommend this piece to anyone who wants to know what's heading our way. Jon _______________________________________________ For more information about sustainability in the Tompkins County area, please visit: http://www.sustainabletompkins.org/ RSS, archives, subscription & listserv information for: [email protected] http://lists.mutualaid.org/mailman/listinfo/sustainabletompkins free hosting by http://www.mutualaid.org
