You have an upcoming event
Alan Hajek, "Consequentialism, Cluelessness, Clumsiness, and
Counterfactuals"
Wednesday 12 Oct 2022 ⋅ 15:30 – 17:00
Eastern Australia Time - Sydney
Philosophy Seminar RoomSimulcast via
Zoom: https://uni-sydney.zoom.us/j/87937027507Abstract: According
to objective consequentialism, the morally right action is the one
that has the best consequences. (These are not just the immediate
consequences of the actions, but the long-term consequences,
perhaps until the end of history.) This account glides easily off the
tongue—so easily that one may not notice that on one understanding it makes
no sense, and on another understanding, it has a startling metaphysical
presupposition concerning counterfactuals. I will bring this presupposition
into relief. Objective consequentialism has faced various objections,
including the problem of “cluelessness”: we have no idea what most of the
consequences of our actions will be. I think that objective
consequentialism has a far worse problem: its very foundations are highly
dubious. Even granting those foundations, a worse problem than cluelessness
remains, which I call “clumsiness”. Moreover, I think that these problems
quickly generalise to a number of other moral theories. But the point is
most easily made for objective consequentialism, so I will focus largely on
it.I will consider three ways that consequentialism might be
improved:1) Appeal instead
to short-term consequences of
actions;2) Understand consequences
with objective probabilities;3) Understand
consequences with subjective/evidential probabilities.Subjective
probabilities may be rationally constrained or not constrained by
evidential probabilities. I will canvas a leading candidate for such a
constraint: the principle of indifference. I will argue that it faces
serious problems besides the well-known ones. But if the probabilities are
not constrained, then subjective consequentialism does not deserve its
title as a theory of moral action. I will consider another way in
which they may be constrained: by objective probabilities. But even here,
there be dragons.
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