gps very kindly ran an FHR analysis job for me. It pulled down 6.3M documents
from non-release users (because the release dataset is not currently reliable
due to dupes).
This is essentially our beta audience. I don't anticipate that the release
channel would be substantially different, but it could be either way -- either
because beta users are heavier users, or because release users typically have
longer-term hoarded profiles.
Only 8K documents were unable to provide a count of bookmarks.
Here's the raw distribution:
> quantile(y, c(.25, .50, .75, .85, .95, .98, .99, .995, .999))
25% 50% 75% 85% 95% 98% 99% 99.5% 99.9%
15 21 34 50 159 413 763 1326 4342
A stock Firefox installation has 23 bookmark entries. If we skip these -- that
is, if we discount users who don't appear to use bookmarks at all:
> users <- y[y > 23]
> quantile(users, c(.25, .50, .75, .85, .95, .98, .99, .995, .999))
25% 50% 75% 85% 95% 98% 99% 99.5% 99.9%
30.000 38.000 69.000 121.000 388.000 871.000 1503.000 2576.000 7988.606
So depending on whether you agree with that last step, a solution that hits 99%
of our users must support 1503 (or 763) bookmark records. To hit 99.9% (i.e.,
to address ~400M users and not address half a million) requires support for
closer to 4000/8000 records.
Of course, most of these records won't be changing a lot -- such is the nature
of bookmarks -- which implies that incrementality will be important.
The vast majority of our users will be around or below 100 bookmarks.
Later today I'll run a similar analysis for Places as a whole, which will
inform history storage.
If I have time, I'll compare these numbers to our known Sync stats, which will
profile that population.
My intuition is that a large portion of our install base are not
"profile-oriented users" -- that is, Firefox for them is mostly a window
through which they look at content, not a place to accrete data and tools --
and that Sync users by definition *are* profile-oriented. But that's largely
pure speculation.
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