Radcliffe pulling out of WC effectively kills her chances for Athlete of the Year. Never mind that her Performance of the Year 2:15 marathon was one of the greatest statistical accomplishments ever, you gotta win a gold medal in a WC year.
Women's AOY should be Mutola's to lose. A win at Paris, Golden League sweep in Brussels and icing on the cake in Monaco seals the deal. Ayhan, Guevara might put up some impressive numbers in Paris, but their seasons are way more thin than Mutola. I suppose Cloete/Bergqvist might be in there if a WR in Paris and Mutola stumbles. Men's AOY should be el Guerrouj's to win if he scores the Big Double in Paris, topping an undefeated year by Sanchez and Cherono/Shaheen even if he nails a steeple WR in Brussels/Monaco.