Alan
From: Richard McCann <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Reply-To: Richard McCann <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "alan tobin" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
CC: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: t-and-f: The Study was a 1995 poll
Date: Thu, 09 Oct 2003 09:40:57 -0700
MIME-Version: 1.0
Received: from mc11-f35.hotmail.com ([65.54.167.42]) by mc11-s6.hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5600); Thu, 9 Oct 2003 10:03:30 -0700
Received: from darkwing.uoregon.edu ([128.223.142.13]) by mc11-f35.hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5600); Thu, 9 Oct 2003 10:00:17 -0700
Received: from darkwing.uoregon.edu ([EMAIL PROTECTED] [127.0.0.1])by darkwing.uoregon.edu (8.12.10/8.12.10) with ESMTP id h99GheE8001585for <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; Thu, 9 Oct 2003 09:43:40 -0700 (PDT)
Received: (from [EMAIL PROTECTED])by darkwing.uoregon.edu (8.12.10/8.12.10/Submit) id h99GheUP001583for t-and-f-outgoing; Thu, 9 Oct 2003 09:43:40 -0700 (PDT)
Received: from velocipede.dcn.davis.ca.us (velocipede.dcn.davis.ca.us [168.150.193.10])by darkwing.uoregon.edu (8.12.10/8.12.10) with ESMTP id h99GhcE8001563for <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; Thu, 9 Oct 2003 09:43:39 -0700 (PDT)
Received: from user-dp1el8yc6y.cal.net (dcn235-28.dcn.davis.ca.us [168.150.235.28])by velocipede.dcn.davis.ca.us (8.11.4/8.11.4/Omsoft) with ESMTP id h99GhOI27001;Thu, 9 Oct 2003 09:43:24 -0700 (PDT)
X-Message-Info: QY4hSA9XRFNXzjI4Nh76qmhfcrIt+K2lxjeWWyzjUa0=
Message-Id: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
X-Sender: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.2.1
In-Reply-To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sender: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Precedence: bulk
Return-Path: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 09 Oct 2003 17:00:23.0476 (UTC) FILETIME=[D4480F40:01C38E86]
The stagnation of men's throwing marks since the mid 1980s runs counter to that argument. That's why I included them in the discussion. The men's shot WR stands from 1990, and the last burst of records was in 1987, the HT WR is from 1986 and no top 10 since 1988, the DT from 1986 and before that in 1978, and other Keshmiri's doubtful 1992 performances, the only others in the top 10 since 1982 are 20 ft behind the WR.
The greatest benefits of steroids accrues to women in general, and strength-based events in particular. Those are the two categories that have stagnated since increased drug testing. Perhaps the causality is spurious, but I think we need a counter hypothesis that is testable to refute that point.
RMc
At 04:15 PM 10/9/2003 +0000, alan tobin wrote:Could also be psychological differences between men and women. Men are more aggressive and therefore would be more inclined to cheat. Women tend to look internally instead of externally for success. When women cheat it's usueally because of an overbearing male presence (Eastern Bloc government, Chinese coaches, etc). Something to chew on. The men's records have fallen insanely since the mid/early 90s. The number of men who have run sub 2:08 in the marathon is just insane. In fact the whole world of running in general from drug cheats to 6:00 charity marathoners to the transformation of Jeff Galloway is just quite insane. Maybe I should become a triathlete.
Alan
From: Richard McCann <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Reply-To: Richard McCann <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: (T&FMail List) [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: t-and-f: The Study was a 1995 poll Date: Wed, 08 Oct 2003 13:45:31 -0700
MIME-Version: 1.0
Received: from mc12-f17.hotmail.com ([65.54.167.153]) by mc12-s9.hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5600); Wed, 8 Oct 2003 14:56:03 -0700
Received: from darkwing.uoregon.edu ([128.223.142.13]) by mc12-f17.hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5600); Wed, 8 Oct 2003 14:52:14 -0700
Received: from darkwing.uoregon.edu ([EMAIL PROTECTED] [127.0.0.1])by darkwing.uoregon.edu (8.12.10/8.12.10) with ESMTP id h98KiDE8017055for <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; Wed, 8 Oct 2003 13:44:13 -0700 (PDT)
Received: (from [EMAIL PROTECTED])by darkwing.uoregon.edu (8.12.10/8.12.10/Submit) id h98KiDgs017051for t-and-f-outgoing; Wed, 8 Oct 2003 13:44:13 -0700 (PDT)
Received: from velocipede.dcn.davis.ca.us (velocipede.dcn.davis.ca.us [168.150.193.10])by darkwing.uoregon.edu (8.12.10/8.12.10) with ESMTP id h98KiBE8016996for <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; Wed, 8 Oct 2003 13:44:12 -0700 (PDT)
Received: from user-dp1el8yc6y.cal.net (dcn235-28.dcn.davis.ca.us [168.150.235.28])by velocipede.dcn.davis.ca.us (8.11.4/8.11.4/Omsoft) with ESMTP id h98Ki7I29823for <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; Wed, 8 Oct 2003 13:44:07 -0700 (PDT)
X-Message-Info: QY4hSA9XRFNVy/E1zBde3B8sVsFUErg21GhHrBhtNhY=
Message-Id: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
X-Sender: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.2.1
In-Reply-To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sender: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Precedence: bulk
Return-Path: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 08 Oct 2003 21:52:16.0405 (UTC) FILETIME=[70633450:01C38DE6]
At 05:22 PM 10/7/2003 -0700, t-and-f-digest wrote:Date: Mon, 6 Oct 2003 18:02:09 -0700 (PDT) From: Matthew Starr <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: t-and-f: The Study was a 1995 poll
From: http://www.bishops.ntc.nf.ca/TeenIssues/C.%20Little/PED.htm PED Use in Professional Sports
I will point out a major, fundamental flaw in this type of study:
Responses to hypothetical surveys differ significantly from actual real world behavior. This issue is a salient in the valuation of non-market resources (e.g., how much is a sunset worth, how much would one pay to preserve the spotted owl, etc.) The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) comissioned a Blue Ribbon Panel to address this question in the early 1990s and concluded that contingent valuation surveys, where these type of hypothetical questions are asked, must be constructed in rigorous specific ways so that respondents believe that the consequences of their choices will actually occur, or they will not respond truthfully or accurately vis a vis their actual choices under real world conditions.
http://www.darp.noaa.gov/pdf/cvblue.pdf
It's pretty obvious that the survey on potential elite athlete drug did not meet these criteria. Given that problem, it's very difficult to draw any useful conclusions.
On another point, I'll reiterate a point I made earlier about performance trends: I think most of us, even myself, would agree that performance drug usage was rampant in the late 1970s and early 1980s among Eastern Europeans, particularly women who benefited most, and could have been widespread among male throwers. Since the institution of drug testing, women's performances in the "classic" events, even up to 3000m, have largely stagnated, while men's performances in comparable events have continued to improve, except in the shot, disc, and hammer (the jav has changed), where performances from the that earlier period would still be highly competitive. The stagnation in women's marks is particularly striking given that the competitive opportunities for women have only recently approached levels similar to men, so one would expect more rapid improvement in the women's marks. What's equally striking is that the men's distance marks have improved dramatically since 1985 (and this is true across all continents), while except for the Chinese outburst, women are only now surpassing the WRs set in the previous era. Unless someone else has an adequate explanation, I can only attribute this to the deterrent value of testing. Baseball may see a similar outcome.
Richard McCann
_________________________________________________________________
Help protect your PC. Get a FREE computer virus scan online from McAfee. http://clinic.mcafee.com/clinic/ibuy/campaign.asp?cid=3963
_________________________________________________________________
Get a FREE computer virus scan online from McAfee. http://clinic.mcafee.com/clinic/ibuy/campaign.asp?cid=3963
