On 4/26/01 9:56 AM, "alan tobin" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Hey Jon, the results get even more interesting, examine closely....
>
> '79: 7 under 32:50, one from GBTC, three from Boulder, CO
> '80: 5 under 32:50, two from GBTC, two from Boulder, CO
>
> What does this say exactly?
It says nothing really. The data is too selective. Overall, drawing from all
the data, the evidence is pretty overwhelming. Look at results of the top
100 times OR the top 25 runners at every distance. I have done some of that
number crunching in Taboo. There is no question that East and North Africans
outperform at statistically significant levels -- quite a few standard
deviations in fact. What does one or five races mean? Nothing, unless the
overall data coincides. In the case of your choice of selective data, it
means nothing.
Also note that most Kenyans train in big groups.
> GBTC had a big group, as did the followers of the Boulder, CO shrine. Maybe,
> just maybe, this means that when you train hard and you train in groups that
> the group gets faster quicker? Isn't it much easier to run 150-200 miles a
> week when you have 10-20 guys to run with? Also, notice the improvements of
> the FILA group. This has a lot to do with the individual runner's past
> training, but also has a lot to do with the group nature of the FILA camp.
> When you have a large group to run with you are more motivated to run and to
> run hard. You are more focused on training hard when you all have the same
> basic goal.
This might or might not be true, but it sheds no light on the issues at
hand. I know many Kenyan athletes -- Hussein, Kipketer and Ereng for example
-- who trained alone. So even anecdotally, your "theory" is no more than
suggestive at best.
>Yes, certain groups will have an easier time succeeding. The
> same could be said that taller men will have an easier time succeeding in
> basketball and naturally large/muscular guys will have an easier time
> succeeding in football, but you can train to be muscular and large, you can
> train to be skinny. On average there are taller African American men than
> Caucasian men so one would assume that African American men will have an
> easier time at becoming very good basketball players.
Where did you get that data Alan? It's just not true. Not even closer. There
are far more tall whites in both raw numbers AND in percentage of their
"racial" population than their are tall African Americans. You'll have to
guess again.
>Also note that the
> inner city African American youth have the same motivation as the poor East
> Africans....succeed, get rich, support your family. Being very tall is not
> good for a distance runner, but it is still very possible for a taller
> runner to become a great distance runner. It is also possible for a beefier
> runner to become a great distance runner.
As a generalization you might be correct but at the elite level you are
certainly wrong. No question about it. You should read some of the
literature on this --Noakes, Saltin, Beunen, Bouchard, etc. Certainly it is
POSSIBLE that an extraordinarily talented tall runner to become a good
marathoner, but that means overcoming a decided handicap. You are merely
making the point I've made over and over: there is a lot of normal human
variaton. But when you look at large aggregates of population data, it is
safe to say that tall people are not as likely to make great distance
runners. Period, end of story.
>There have been a lot of mexican,
> spanish, and australian marathoners who were pretty beefy. Also, wasn't Herb
> Lindsey something like 5"9' 160lbs? Didn't he hold the American
> half-marathon record of around 1:01? Isn't a 1:01 half-marathon still very
> competitive on the world scene?
You keep getting hung up on individual examples. If I go out and find a 7
foot 8 inch woman, it does not mean that the FACT that men are taller than
women suddenly collapses. Try to see the difference between population
genetics, which helps explain trends, and individuals who are subject to
variation, serendipity, environment and social conditions.
That's why this debate in no way detracts from enjoying sports --
individuals win races, groups don't. Personally, I couldn't care less if
Kenyans sweep the top 30 places at every race -- they are 30 individuals,
each with different motivations, training styles, etc. It's their individual
quests that energize sports. That doesn't mean we shouldn't look to
understand patterns.
>Granted, yes the Africans et al have a much
> easier time at it, but it's not impossible for non-Africans to run very
> fast. There will always be a strong depth of African talent simply because
> they have the right raw materials to start out with. They start out in the
> middle of the ladder, while others may start more toward the bottom, but
> that doesn't mean they both can't reach the top of the ladder.
I certainly never implied otherwise.
>Of course the
> African talent will not help much if more African nations become more
> modern. Turn the Kenyan children into "lazy American children" through
> McDonalds, TV, and the computer and everything will be level again.
Now you're speculating again. As you said above, however, "There will always
be a strong depth of African talent simply because they have the right raw
materials to start out with." If that's true, then even after the soporific
effect of western culture, African talent might still provide an edge!
>
> Alan
>
>
>
>
>
>>> MEN 1997 Falmouth
>>>
>>> 1. Khalid Khannouchi, Morocco 31:58
>>> 2. Thomas Osano, Kenya 32:07
>>> 3. Peter Githuka, Kenya 32:22
>>> 4. Lazarus Nyakeraka, Kenya 32:28
>>> 5. James Bungei, Kenya 32:31
>>> 6. Simon Chemoiywo, Kenya 32:36
>>> 7. Hezron Otwori, Kenya 32:36
>>> 8. Joseph Kariuki, Kenya 32:39
>>> 9. Brahim Lahlafi, Morocco 32:40
>>> 10. John Kariuki, Kenya 33:05
>>>
>>> MEN 1982 Falmouth
>>> 1. Alberto Salazar Oregon 31:53 CR
>>> 2. Craig Virgin Illinois 32:12
>>> 3. Rod Dixon New Zealand 32:16
>>> 4. Mike Musyoki Kenya 32:17
>>> 5. Marc Curp Missouri 32:46
>>> 6. Dan Schlesinger No. Carolina 32:53
>>> 7. Sosthenes Bitok Kenya 33:06
>>> 8. George Malley Newton, MA 33:10
>>> 9. Bob Hodge GBTC 33:12
>>> 10. Gary Fanelli Penn. 33:13
>>>
>>> MEN Falmouth 1979
>>> 1. Craig Virgin West Lebanon, IL 32:19
>>> 2. Herb Lindsay Michigan 32:27
>>> 3. Bill Rodgers GBTC 32:29
>>> 4. Jon Sinclair Colorado 32:36
>>> 5. Frank Shorter Colorado 32:42
>>> 6. Rick Rojas Colorado 32:44
>>> 7. John Flora Northeastern TC 32:45
>>> 8. Mike Roche New Jersey 32:51
>>> 9. Robbie Perkins unat. 33:03
>>> 10. Benji Durden Georgia 33:21
>>>
>>> MEN Falmouth 1980
>>> 1. Rod Dixon New Zealand 32:20
>>> 2. Herb Lindsey Boulder, CO 32:32
>>> 3. Ric Rojas Boulder, CO 32:34
>>> 4. Bob Hodge GBTC 32:38
>>> 5. Greg Meyer GBTC 32:49
>>> 6. Terry Baker Wash. DC 32:58
>>> 7. Randy Thomas GBTC 33:03
>>> 8. Kyle Heffner Boulder, CO 33:07
>>> 9. Benji Durden Georgia 33:09
>>> 10. Stan Vernon Oklahoma 33:19
>>>
>
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--
Jon Entine
RuffRun
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