The Electronic Telegraph Sunday 8 July 2001 David Miller BY an administrative misjudgment, the vote on who shall succeed Juan Antonio Samaranch as president of the International Olympic Committee for the next eight years may be influenced by which city is selected to host the 2008 Games. It was ill-advised to have both decisions made at the same session, and could be to the advantage of the perceived presidential favourite, Jacques Rogge of Belgium. The host city will be elected next Friday, the new president on July 16. In the way of human nature and particularly the cautious, not to say envious attitude of the IOC's inter-Continental rivalries, it is probable that some members will be reluctant to make a double award of huge influence and power to one region in the same week. The city front-runners are Beijing, Paris and Toronto; the bids of Istanbul and Osaka, the latter a first-time trier, have been assessed as below the necessary technical standard. The presidential candidates seeking to step into the seven-league boots of Samaranch are: Anita DeFrantz, US lawyer and bronze medal oarswoman in 1976; Un Yong Kim, South Korean diplomat, president of the General Assembly of International Sports Federations, and mastermind of the Seoul Games; Richard Pound, Canadian lawyer, Olympic swimmer, the IOC's financial brain; Jacques Rogge, Belgian orthopaedic surgeon, Olympic yachtsman, multi-linguist; and Pal Schmit, Hungarian ambassador in Spain, Olympic fencing champion. The fancied contenders are Kim, Rogge and Pound. There are, therefore, three main possibly continental pairings: Toronto/Pound, Paris/Rogge, Beijing/Kim. The supposition, not without reason, is that preference for one of these three cities would be prejudicial to the presidential candidate. Even if, say, 10 IOC members were thus influenced, out of 130, a few of whom may be absent, that could be a critical factor. An unofficial yardstick of intentions regarding the second decision suggests that, on the first round, Kim and Rogge will be close on around 45 votes each, Pound with some 20, DeFrantz and Schmit sharing the remaining 20. Many predictions calculate that the fall-out from DeFrantz, Schmit, and, probably, Pound, in successive rounds will swing more toward Rogge than Kim. The host city barometer is showing highest over Beijing, narrowly defeated eight years ago by Sydney. If Beijing is chosen on Friday with all the accruing benefits, that will dissuade some members from additionally granting Asia the most powerful seat in sport, the presidency. If this scenario is correct, it would apply even more so to Toronto/Pound. Together with Beijing and Paris, the Toronto bid was judged excellent by the investigating commission. Canada has not staged a summer Games since ill-starred Montreal in 1976, and Toronto's bid for the Centenary Games of '96 was superior to Atlanta's ultimately disappointing venture. Cosmopolitan Toronto's shore-based lakeside offer is highly attractive but, were it to win, that would assuredly limit Pound's chance. NBC Television, which suffered heavy financial losses on Sydney, are desperate for a north American local-time schedule; though because NBC records/edits much of its screening, Paris would be acceptable. The extent to which NBC can lean on voters is questionable. More significant is the recent howler by Mel Lastman, Toronto's mayor. Asked whether he would be attending a meeting of African national Olympic Committees in Mombassa, Kenya, he crassly replied that he could not imagine going there "to dance around a kettle". Africans were incensed and, although Lastman duly apologised, Toronto has almost certainly lost any African and most Asian support. Paris has a superb bid, possibly the last potential site for a romantic city-centre Games: a commercial area between the Stade de France and Montmartre awaiting redevelopment and ideal for a Village and sports park from which competitors could walk to the main stadium and be a 10 minute metro ride from the Champs Elysees. Plus, fencing in the Grand Palais; equestrianism in the ornamental park between Place de la Concorde and Invalides; triathlon in the Bois de Boulogne; tennis at Roland Garros; beach volleyball almost under the Eiffel Tower. However, Claude Bebear, chairman of the bid, has become embroiled in an alleged scandal involving the insurance giant Axa, which may prove damaging. Either way, the choice of Paris is unlikely to harm Rogge. He would be a certainty were Europe, with nearly 50 per cent of the votes, unanimous. In fact, there are some divisions. Beijing, as before, offers huge future markets. The 21st century will be Pacific-orientated: Shanghai has just been elected hosts to the tennis Masters Cup for Nov 2002. The human rights factor, on which pressure groups have assiduously lobbied IOC members, may be viewed as irrelevant. The Olympic Games are not the games of the "free world", but are the games of the world. If the Chinese are eligible to participate, by definition they are eligible to play host. Moscow did. These are not political games any more than were the triumphant games in Seoul, hitherto without diplomatic relations with much of the world. The forecast must be that Beijing wins on Friday, with Kim then battling to collect sufficient second and third-round second-choice votes to block Rogge tomorrow week. Rogge is similar to former President Lord Killanin of Ireland: neutral, a negotiator, clever compromiser, with no worrying national power-base agenda. Kim, publicly obscure, can call in many favours over many years. Insiders fancy Rogge to win. Whoever does will have a mammoth task controlling the dinosaur in the wake of a president who made some errors but leaves a legacy of substantial achievements. Eamonn Condon www.RunnersGoal.com
