In the August 2nd issue, Sports Illustrated predicted the gold, silver and bronze medal winners for all Olympic events. I thought it would be interesting to see how successful they were in their track and field selections. The chart that follows shows whether (yes/no) they correctly predicted the winner and how many of the three medalists, without regard to order of finish, they picked in each event.
M 100m n 2 W 100m n 0 M 200m y 1 W 200m y 2 M 400m n 2 W 400m n 2 M 800m n 2 W 800m n 2 M 1500m y 2 W 1500m n 1 M 3K steeple n 2 M 5,000m n 2 W 5,000m n 1 M 10,000m y 2 W 10,000m n 1 M marathon n 0 W marathon n 1 M 110m hurdles n 2 W 100m hurdles n 0 M 400m hurdles y 2 W 400m hurdles n 0 M 4 x 100 relay n 2 W 4 x 100 relay n 2 M 4 x 400 relay y 1 W 4 x 400 relay n 3 M 20K racewalk n 1 W 20K racewalk n 0 M 50K racewalk y 2 M high jump y 1 W high jump n 2 M pole vault n 2 W pole vault n 2 M long jump y 1 W long jump n 1 M triple jump y 1 W triple jump n 1 M shot put n 1 W shot put n* 1 M discus n 2 W discus n 2 M hammer y 2 W hammer n 1 M javelin n 1 W javelin y 2 M decathlon y 2 W heptathlon y 2 Some summary stats- Overall, women proved to be less predictable than men (that's news?), although the women's 4 x 400m was the only event where SI picked all three medalists (although not in correct order). As can be seen above, SI failed to predict any of the medalists in four women's events, but missed that badly only in the men's marathon. In the following comparisons, I did not include the steeplechase or 50k racewalk, since there were no equivalent women's events. I also didn't credit a correct gold-medal choice in the women's shot put, although it could be argued that no one could have anticipated an after-the-event drug disqualification. Sports Illustrated correctly predicted 10 of 22 men's gold medalists (very good, I think), but only 3 of 22 women's golds. Without regard to order, they picked 34 of the total 66 men's medalists, 29 of the women's. With men's and women's data combined, despite some upsets, the sprints appeared easiest to handicap; the hurdles, with some really big upsets, the most difficult. Weights and jumps were fairly equal, although it will be noted that none of the women's gold medal leapers were foreseen. I understand there were some medal-picking contests going on through internet sites. It will be interesting to see how they compare. Please let us know. Cheers, Roger
