---------- Message transféré ---------- De : "GovDelivery Weather Updates" <weatherupda...@public.govdelivery.com> Date : 8 juil. 2013 11:23 Objet : Atlantic Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3 À : <severin.men...@gmail.com>
[image: NWS Banner] *You are subscribed to NHC Wind Speed Probabilities (Atlantic) for NOAA's National Weather Service.* *GovDelivery provides this service using unaltered NOAA/NWS products.* Atlantic Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAPWSAT3.shtml> 07/08/2013 11:01 AM EDT 000 FONT13 KNHC 081501 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1500 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 2 9 22 32 TROP DEPRESSION 5 8 8 9 24 36 37 TROPICAL STORM 92 78 67 57 57 40 30 HURRICANE 4 13 23 32 11 3 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 12 20 26 10 2 1 HUR CAT 2 1 1 3 5 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 50KT 35KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 7(26) 1(27) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 2(28) X(28) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 1(41) X(41) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) 1(40) X(40) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 1(35) X(35) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 34(52) X(52) X(52) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 12(12) 15(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GUADELOUPE 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) AVES 34 X 1( 1) 58(59) 8(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) AVES 50 X X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) AVES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DOMINICA 34 X 6( 6) 49(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 X 16(16) 52(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) MARTINIQUE 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 16(16) 45(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) SAINT LUCIA 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 8( 8) 23(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X 46(46) 7(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) BARBADOS 50 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARBADOS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRENADA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART [image: Bookmark and Share]<http://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USNWS/bulletins/829902?reqfrom=share> ------------------------------ To change your subscriptions or preferences log in to your Subscriber Preferences Page<https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USNWS/subscriber/new?preferences=true>with your e-mail address. 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