International Space Dominance: 7 Nations Launching the Next Space Race

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North Korea is about to launch its first satellite. Iran launched theirs last 
month. India's space agency recently got the green light to send people into 
space, and China's announced plans to build a space station. Getting to space 
is no longer for a few, technically apt nations. Here's a look at seven 
countries that have their sights on orbit and the capabilities to get there
 
 
 

A Russian Proton-M rocket. (Photograph by STR/AFP/Getty Images)

 
With a flurry of international efforts toward satellite launch capability (from 
one's home country), getting back to the moon and putting citizens in space, 
some experts say we are looking at a new space race–one focused on total space 
dominance. Should we be worried? After all, the first space race had at its 
core a battle for who could build the biggest intercontinental ballistic 
missiles. 

No doubt about it, says Henry Hertzfeld, research professor at George 
Washington University's Space Policy Institute, "there are a lot of new 
starts." But he cautions that it's important to put them in perspective. "There 
are different launch vehicles and different capabilities, too. Comparing a 
manned capability that India might want to spend some money on with Iran 
launching a very small, very low Earth orbit satellite is really apples and 
oranges." Here is a look at the capabilities of the top–and 
most-talked-about–space-faring nations in what may be a new world order. The 
race is on for space dominance. 


China
Last month, France signed on for a sat launch on a Chinese Long March rocket. 
The deal circumvents U.S. restrictions on Chinese commercial launches by using 
a satellite made without American parts. It should boost China's economic clout 
by setting an important precedent in the lucrative commercial-launch market. 
Meanwhile, China continues to send taikonauts to orbit aboard its Shenzhou 
spaceship and has just announced plans to build a space station. Is a manned 
moon landing next?

Capability: High, along with its ambition. 


Europe
The European Space Agency has seemed content to sit back and watch the rest of 
the space-faring world pour money into manned spaceflight and exploratory 
missions while focusing on lower-cost satellite launches. But plans to convert 
its Automated Transfer Vehicle from a space cargo container into a manned 
spaceship—unveiled last year—could make Europe the fourth world power to 
develop manned spaceflight capability, if it so desires.

Capability: Moderate, limited mainly by its own ambition, or lack thereof. 


United States
While waiting on the new NASA leader, the United States continues its focus on 
the moon—with Martian aspirations—with its technically troubled Constellation 
system. After the space shuttle retires in 2010, NASA will find itself without 
a manned spaceflight capability until Constellation is completed–as early as 
2015.

Capability: High, but subject to change with the retirement of the space 
shuttle. 


Russia
Six private cosmonauts have paid tens of millions of dollars each for rides on 
Russian Soyuz ships, and the demand is now so great that the Russian space 
agency plans to launch the first mission dedicated to paying passengers next 
year. Russia seems to have found its niche, serving the emerging commercial 
spaceflight industry—including selling rides to NASA's astronauts. It has even 
approved plans to send a manned commercial mission to the moon–if only two 
passengers will step up with $100 million each for tickets.

Capability: High, limited by private capital
 
 

 

An Iranian Safir rocket sits on a launch pad. (Photograph by Vahidreza 
Alai/AFP/Getty Images)

Japan
Japan wants to recover its reputation in the space-launch business–tarnished 
with the 2003 failure of its H-2A rocket–with the new H-2B. The bigger, more 
powerful rocket should enable the launch of multiple satellites simultaneously, 
thereby making Japan more competitive in the sat launch business. It will also 
lift the new H-2 Transfer Vehicle, built to deliver supplies to the 
International Space Station.

Capability: Moderate, but growing. 


India
Last month, India's Planning Commission signed off on a proposed two-person 
manned spaceship to be launched by 2015 on an existing satellite launcher. The 
plan follows last year's successful launch of the Chandrayaan 1 lunar orbiter 
that dropped a smaller probe to crash-land the Indian flag on the lunar 
surface. The agency also plans to build and launch a Mars probe in the near 
future.

Capability: Moderate, but growing. 


Iran
On February 3, the Iranian government unveiled a space launch center and 
launched a satellite called Omid, or Hope, into orbit on a Safir 2 rocket. 
"With this launch, the Islamic Republic of Iran has officially achieved a 
presence in space," President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced to the world. 
Ahmadinejad denied that the launch was anything but a statement of "peace and 
brotherhood," but that is just a matter of semantics, says the Space Policy 
Institute's Henry Hertzfeld. "In space, there is nothing that I'm aware of that 
doesn't have dual uses, from the most modest of launch vehicles and satellites 
to the very big programs," Hertzfeld says. In other words, a satellite launcher 
and a missile are virtually indistinguishable.

Capability: Low, but slowly improving. 


North Korea
North Korea says it plans to launch its Kwangmyongsong-2 satellite on a rocket 
dubbed Unha-2 any day now. The Koreans and Iranians have been sharing rocket 
technology, and their programs have progressed at similar rates. Even though 
Iran succeeded in reaching orbit first, Nathan Hughes, a military analyst at 
global intelligence firm STRATFOR, says that North Korea is actually ahead of 
Iran in building "what is basically an extremely large Scud," a missile built 
by the former Soviet Union and a direct descendant of the World War II-era V2 
rocket.

Capability: Low, but improving.
 
 
 


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