Every February 2 -- the halfway point between the winter solstice and
spring equinox -- a bleary-eyed groundhog is hoisted from its burrow
into the daylight in towns across the United States and Canada. If its
human handler proclaims that the rodent sees its shadow (as Punxsutawney
Phil did this year), then six more weeks of winter await; if it doesn't,
spring will come early -- or so the tradition goes.
But we don't need this groundhog's communicated advice! At 7:25 am on
February 2 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, determine whether or not it is
cloudy or clear. If the sun is shining, then we'll have an early Spring.
If clouds obscure the sun, we'll have six more weeks of Winter.
We have therefore eliminated one link in the chain of events that
previously determined this prediction. We have also eliminated the false
positive in case Phil is too sleepy to notice his shadow (he may be
looking in the wrong direction), or even a false negative if someone is
trying to get a better observation by shining a bright light upon the
creature on a dark cloudy morning where he might see his shadow from the
artificial light source.
Lee Skinner, not a meteorologist nor an animal behaviorist
(Not off topic, as Phil's burrow might be considered to be a cave by
small cavers)
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