This came to us today from the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, ID. Plan your caving and camping activities accordingly. Conditions are continuing to change making it very difficult to develop long term fire season forecasts because of global patterns that are transitioning from La Niña to either neutral or El Niño conditions (Pacific Ocean weather and sea temperature patterns). Normal to above normal precipitation occurred during the winter across the Northwest and northern Rockies. However, much below normal precipitation left a sparse snowpack across most of the Southwest.
Above normal precipitation over the southern and central Plains brought some drought relief to the region while shortfalls occurred over much of the East coast. Severe to exceptional drought continues across much of the Southwest from western Texas to California and into the Great Basin. Severe to exceptional drought also exists over parts of the Southeast, New England, and the Upper Midwest. Areas of concern include: · southern parts of the Southwest and southeastern California; · the western slope of the Rockies in Colorado; · the mountains of central California and portions of western Nevada; · southwestern Idaho/north central Nevada; · parts of the Southeast to include southern Georgia and northern Florida; · northern Wisconsin and Minnesota; and · parts of Hawaii. Alaska: Due to the ample snowpack and forecasted cooler temperatures in the south, fire season is expected to start later than normal. Expect below normal fire potential for April, transitioning to normal by the end of May and continuing for the remainder of the season. Southwest: Above normal significant fire potential is expected to gradually expand northwestward to encompass the western half of the Area. The most likely condition during this period is an increase in the possibly of lightning ignitions. There is a reasonable amount of confidence that the weather pattern will not be as conducive to large-scale, wind-driven fire events as the fine fuels available in the eastern half to two thirds of the Area are not as widespread or as continuous as a year ago. There remains a considerable amount of uncertainty in the overall forecast, mainly revolving around the possibility of developing El Niño conditions. Conditions are continuing to change making it very difficult to develop long term fire season forecasts because of global patterns that are transitioning from La Niña to either neutral or El Niño conditions (Pacific Ocean weather and sea temperature patterns). Normal to above normal precipitation occurred during the winter across the Northwest and northern Rockies. However, much below normal precipitation left a sparse snowpack across most of the Southwest. Above normal precipitation over the southern and central Plains brought some drought relief to the region while shortfalls occurred over much of the East coast. Severe to exceptional drought continues across much of the Southwest from western Texas to California and into the Great Basin. Severe to exceptional drought also exists over parts of the Southeast, New England, and the Upper Midwest. Areas of concern include: · southern parts of the Southwest and southeastern California; · the western slope of the Rockies in Colorado; · the mountains of central California and portions of western Nevada; · southwestern Idaho/north central Nevada; · parts of the Southeast to include southern Georgia and northern Florida; · northern Wisconsin and Minnesota; and · parts of Hawaii. Alaska: Due to the ample snowpack and forecasted cooler temperatures in the south, fire season is expected to start later than normal. Expect below normal fire potential for April, transitioning to normal by the end of May and continuing for the remainder of the season. Southwest: Above normal significant fire potential is expected to gradually expand northwestward to encompass the western half of the Area. The most likely condition during this period is an increase in the possibly of lightning ignitions. There is a reasonable amount of confidence that the weather pattern will not be as conducive to large-scale, wind-driven fire events as the fine fuels available in the eastern half to two thirds of the Area are not as widespread or as continuous as a year ago. There remains a considerable amount of uncertainty in the overall forecast, mainly revolving around the possibility of developing El Niño conditions. Northern Rockies: Current projections of a cooler than normal spring should translate into a normal to slightly later than normal snow melt. The cooler than normal temperatures along with normal precipitation should keep the potential for the development of significant fires in the lower elevations and mainly valley bottoms. Eastern Montana and the Dakotas have had abnormally warm and dry conditions with much below normal precipitation. Higher humidity values and increased precipitation frequency should allow for the region to decrease to a normal level of significant fire potential. The higher elevations should not enter fire season until mid July at the earliest. Eastern Montana and North Dakota should remain out of season until the grasses cure in mid July. If current trends hold, fire season should begin during the second half of July for the entire region starting with southeast Montana and spread west through the remainder of the month as would normally be expected. Western Great Basin: Parts of western Nevada have potential for a large fire under windy conditions. This area has been exceptionally dry this winter. Fuels throughout the state are still quite dry. The Western Great Basin typically has no significant fires through most of May but small fires start to appear by late May, transitioning into full fire season in June. However, due to the abundance and dryness of the fuels over western and parts of northern and central Nevada, above normal significant fire potential is still possible, depending on the weather pattern heading into summer. El Niño conditions may bring more precipitation to parts of southern Nevada, which would decrease the chances of seeing an above normal significant fire potential. Eastern Great Basin: For May through July significant fire potential is expected to be generally normal with a small area of above normal developing in the far southern portion of the area. The May through July period is expected to have near normal temperature and precipitation trends, with the exception of southern Utah where warmer and drier than normal conditions are possible. Northwest: Fire danger indices remain well below what is needed to sustain the risk of significant fires. Fire danger is unlikely to rise significantly until late June. Weather through June over the Pacific Northwest is usually too cool and moist for significant fires to be prevalent, with 2012 not expected to be any different despite the fact that the current La Niña event is ending. Lower elevations east of the Cascades in Oregon will continue to remain in mild drought but still not dry enough to sustain the risk of significant fires. Northern California: Normal significant fire potential is expected for most areas from May through July. However, areas across the east side and into parts of the Sierra continue to experience lingering drought conditions along with snowpack levels only near 50 percent of normal. There is some indication of a warmer and drier pattern developing during this period, so by June onward we do see the possibility of above normal significant fire potential. Southern California: Significant fire potential will be increasing to above normal in the Sierras, Sierra Foothills, interior central coast and north and east aspects of the Southern California mountains from May through July. Near normal temperatures are expected for this period as well. Rocky Mountain: Above normal significant fire potential is anticipated to reemerge over western Colorado below 8500 feet by June through July, while normal significant fire potential is predicted across the remainder of the area during the May through July period. Eastern Area: The overall weather pattern is expected to shift to a cooler trend into the early summer months across much of the eastern U.S. The increased frequency of precipitation events should keep overall fire potential into the spring and early summer near normal overall. However, any dry and windy periods will create increased significant fire potential across the drier portions of the Eastern Area, especially prior to greenup. Southern Area: Forecasted weather, fuel moisture, and drought risks in the Southern Area combine to create above normal significant fire potential across southern Georgia and Florida, and along the coastal plain of the southeast coast. In addition, a moderate wind threat still remains across a limited area in the west covering the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles and the Trans-Pecos region of Texas. In Florida very high drought indices and little rainfall will continue to worsen drought conditions. Florida will remain the highest fire risk area into May, where the traditional fire season is May through June. The trend for a weakening La Niña condition has the potential to reduce the significant fire potential, though it is likely to remain above normal.