This came to us today from the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, ID.
Plan your caving and camping activities accordingly.
Conditions are continuing to change making it very difficult to develop long
term fire season forecasts because of global patterns that are transitioning
from La Niña to either neutral or El Niño conditions (Pacific Ocean weather and
sea temperature patterns).
Normal to above normal precipitation occurred during the winter across the
Northwest and northern Rockies. However, much below normal precipitation left a
sparse snowpack across most of the Southwest.
Above normal precipitation over the southern and central Plains brought some
drought relief to the region while shortfalls occurred over much of the East
coast.
Severe to exceptional drought continues across much of the Southwest from
western Texas to California and into the Great Basin.
Severe to exceptional drought also exists over parts of the Southeast, New
England, and the Upper Midwest.
Areas of concern include:
· southern parts of the Southwest and southeastern California;
· the western slope of the Rockies in Colorado;
· the mountains of central California and portions of western Nevada;
· southwestern Idaho/north central Nevada;
· parts of the Southeast to include southern Georgia and northern
Florida;
· northern Wisconsin and Minnesota; and
· parts of Hawaii.
Alaska: Due to the ample snowpack and forecasted cooler temperatures in the
south, fire season is expected to start later than normal. Expect below normal
fire potential for April, transitioning to normal by the end of May and
continuing for the remainder of the season.
Southwest: Above normal significant fire potential is expected to gradually
expand northwestward to encompass the western half of the Area. The most likely
condition during this period is an increase in the possibly of lightning
ignitions. There is a reasonable amount of confidence that the weather pattern
will not be as conducive to large-scale, wind-driven fire events as the fine
fuels available in the eastern half to two thirds of the Area are not as
widespread or as continuous as a year ago. There remains a considerable amount
of uncertainty in the overall forecast, mainly revolving around the possibility
of developing El Niño conditions.
Conditions are continuing to change making it very difficult to develop long
term fire season forecasts because of global patterns that are transitioning
from La Niña to either neutral or El Niño conditions (Pacific Ocean weather and
sea temperature patterns).
Normal to above normal precipitation occurred during the winter across the
Northwest and northern Rockies. However, much below normal precipitation left a
sparse snowpack across most of the Southwest.
Above normal precipitation over the southern and central Plains brought some
drought relief to the region while shortfalls occurred over much of the East
coast.
Severe to exceptional drought continues across much of the Southwest from
western Texas to California and into the Great Basin.
Severe to exceptional drought also exists over parts of the Southeast, New
England, and the Upper Midwest.
Areas of concern include:
· southern parts of the Southwest and southeastern California;
· the western slope of the Rockies in Colorado;
· the mountains of central California and portions of western Nevada;
· southwestern Idaho/north central Nevada;
· parts of the Southeast to include southern Georgia and northern
Florida;
· northern Wisconsin and Minnesota; and
· parts of Hawaii.
Alaska: Due to the ample snowpack and forecasted cooler temperatures in the
south, fire season is expected to start later than normal. Expect below normal
fire potential for April, transitioning to normal by the end of May and
continuing for the remainder of the season.
Southwest: Above normal significant fire potential is expected to gradually
expand northwestward to encompass the western half of the Area. The most likely
condition during this period is an increase in the possibly of lightning
ignitions. There is a reasonable amount of confidence that the weather pattern
will not be as conducive to large-scale, wind-driven fire events as the fine
fuels available in the eastern half to two thirds of the Area are not as
widespread or as continuous as a year ago. There remains a considerable amount
of uncertainty in the overall forecast, mainly revolving around the possibility
of developing El Niño conditions.
Northern Rockies: Current projections of a cooler than normal spring should
translate into a normal to slightly later than normal snow melt. The cooler
than normal temperatures along with normal precipitation should keep the
potential for the development of significant fires in the lower elevations and
mainly valley bottoms. Eastern Montana and the Dakotas have had abnormally warm
and dry conditions with much below normal precipitation. Higher humidity values
and increased precipitation frequency should allow for the region to decrease
to a normal level of significant fire potential. The higher elevations should
not enter fire season until mid July at the earliest. Eastern Montana and North
Dakota should remain out of season until the grasses cure in mid July. If
current trends hold, fire season should begin during the second half of July
for the entire region starting with southeast Montana and spread west through
the remainder of the month as would normally be expected.
Western Great Basin: Parts of western Nevada have potential for a large fire
under windy conditions. This area has been exceptionally dry this winter. Fuels
throughout the state are still quite dry. The Western Great Basin typically
has no significant fires through most of May but small fires start to appear by
late May, transitioning into full fire season in June. However, due to the
abundance and dryness of the fuels over western and parts of northern and
central Nevada, above normal significant fire potential is still possible,
depending on the weather pattern heading into summer. El Niño conditions may
bring more precipitation to parts of southern Nevada, which would decrease the
chances of seeing an above normal significant fire potential.
Eastern Great Basin: For May through July significant fire potential is
expected to be generally normal with a small area of above normal developing in
the far southern portion of the area. The May through July period is expected
to have near normal temperature and precipitation trends, with the exception of
southern Utah where warmer and drier than normal conditions are possible.
Northwest: Fire danger indices remain well below what is needed to sustain the
risk of significant fires. Fire danger is unlikely to rise significantly until
late June. Weather through June over the Pacific Northwest is usually too cool
and moist for significant fires to be prevalent, with 2012 not expected to be
any different despite the fact that the current La Niña event is ending. Lower
elevations east of the Cascades in Oregon will continue to remain in mild
drought but still not dry enough to sustain the risk of significant fires.
Northern California: Normal significant fire potential is expected for most
areas from May through July. However, areas across the east side and into parts
of the Sierra continue to experience lingering drought conditions along with
snowpack levels only near 50 percent of normal. There is some indication of a
warmer and drier pattern developing during this period, so by June onward we do
see the possibility of above normal significant fire potential.
Southern California: Significant fire potential will be increasing to above
normal in the Sierras, Sierra Foothills, interior central coast and north and
east aspects of the Southern California mountains from May through July. Near
normal temperatures are expected for this period as well.
Rocky Mountain: Above normal significant fire potential is anticipated to
reemerge over western Colorado below 8500 feet by June through July, while
normal significant fire potential is predicted across the remainder of the area
during the May through July period. Eastern Area: The overall weather pattern
is expected to shift to a cooler trend into the early summer months across much
of the eastern U.S. The increased frequency of precipitation events should keep
overall fire potential into the spring and early summer near normal overall.
However, any dry and windy periods will create increased significant fire
potential across the drier portions of the Eastern Area, especially prior to
greenup.
Southern Area: Forecasted weather, fuel moisture, and drought risks in the
Southern Area combine to create above normal significant fire potential across
southern Georgia and Florida, and along the coastal plain of the southeast
coast. In addition, a moderate wind threat still remains across a limited area
in the west covering the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles and the Trans-Pecos
region of Texas. In Florida very high drought indices and little rainfall will
continue to worsen drought conditions. Florida will remain the highest fire
risk area into May, where the traditional fire season is May through June. The
trend for a weakening La Niña condition has the potential to reduce the
significant fire potential, though it is likely to remain above normal.
