On 12/08/2010 13:03, jennifer wrote:
Subject: Breaking News - NM's El Mapais National Monument Closes Caves
http://www.nps.gov/elma/loader.cfm?csModule=security/getfile&PageID=522060
And so it begins. Probably a tipping point...it should not be unexpected
if other areas/agencies follow suit in relatively short order. No agency
wants to be the one that can be pointed to as having 'not done enough'.
Such events just need somebody to go first and then the thing runs like
a slinky down stairs.
I'm surprised that we had not heard of this sooner given that the press
release was dated Nov 22.
So, to summarize...
a) No demonstrated human vector; pure, unsubstantiated speculation in
every announcement to date as to a human component.
b) No evidence of WNS anywhere in NM.
c) A minimum of 300 air miles between NW Oklahoma and El Malpais.
d) Next closest confirmed incident approx. 1000 air miles east in
eastern Missouri.
e) No additional Oklahoma reports since the May 2010 single occurrence,
nor of any other occurrences elsewhere in adjacent states; thus no
evidence or even trend data to suggest a spread either is occurring or
is at risk of doing so.
f) The Oklahoma incident is of a different quality. Oklahoma Department
of Wildlife notes: "...the pattern of infection was _not_ consistent
with the White Nose Syndrome infection observed in bats in the eastern
United States. There also has _not_ been a mortality event attributable
to White Nose Syndrome in Oklahoma to date. The next closest known
report of the fungus occurred in eastern Missouri earlier this year. To
date, all of the White Nose Syndrome cases have been east of the
Mississippi River."
Ergo, in the absence of any documented facts specific to the park (or
area, or state, and thus a question as to what is the compelling need?)
the caves must be closed now. Very logical in some folks' minds, I
guess. The NPS does not present a very compelling WNS case in their
rambling catch-all explanation of the closure. The action surely appears
more opportunistic than necessary, given the prospective nature of their
language.
Stephen Fleming
_____
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. -- Aldous Huxley
If the facts do not conform to the theory, they must be disposed of. --
Maier's Law
The facts, although interesting, are irrelevant. -- Unknown
The fewer the facts, the stranger the opinion. -- Arnold H. Glascow
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