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Concerns About The Undecided Six to be
Seduced
By Pascal Riche La Liberation Saturday 6 March 2003 The weekend promises to be a great moment in the history of "checkbook diplomacy''. Six countries, non-permanent members of the Security Council, "undecided'' have rejected the American war's logic. But their position could change in exchange for concessions. Washington needs to convince five of the six to obtain the nine vote majority necessary for the adoption of a Security Council resolution. For his part, Dominique de Villepin will be visiting Angola, Cameroon, and Guinea in the next few days to defend the French position. Guinea - More money and fewer human rights Guinea, which presides over the Security Council this month, is one of the 15 poorest countries on the planet. Ties with the former French colonial power have become quite distant since independence in 1958. As far as aid is concerned, the United States comes in first, ahead even of France, with 50 million dollars a year. The majority of the population is Muslim, but the war with Iraq is not the principle preoccupation of public opinion. Last month, Washington and London sent emissaries to Conakry. There, they promised President Lansana Conte an aid increase, notably to treat the problem of 300,000 Liberian and Sierra Leonese refugees. To get Guinea's vote, Washington (or Paris) could promise to close their eyes to the human rights situation. Angola - Oil Contract Blackmail Up till now, Angola has held the line against Washington, which is surprising given the extent this country depends economically on the United States. It is emerging from a 27 year civil war. Several million refugees live in precarious conditions. It is one of the most corrupt countries in the world: nearly a billion dollars of aid money disappear there every year. Angola is the sixth U.S. oil supplier (ahead of Kuwait) and does not care to see that position jeopardized. American investments sustain the economy. Exxon Mobil concluded a three billion dollar contract. Washington accords 90 million dollars a year in aid to the country, which could be reduced in the case of a "no'' or increased in the case of a "yes''. Moreover, Angola hopes to access AGOA (Africa Growth and Opportunity Act) benefits, an American commercial preference system for Africa, refused for Luanda up till now because of the human rights situation. Mexico - Immigration Agreement Suspended Legislative elections are coming up and the very great majority of voters are against the war. But 80 % of Mexico's foreign trade is with its big northern neighbor. Moreover, Mexico is waiting for the United States to agree to sign a treaty that will clarify immigration issues and regularize illegal Mexican immigrants. President Fox calls for Washington and Paris to compromise: a delay of the war until month-end, along with an ultimatum to Saddam. Chili - Free-Trade Agreement Hostage President Lagos has made speeches in favor of peace. But Chili has been very discrete about its voting intentions. European diplomats fear that "if the Mexicans give in to Washington, the Chileans will follow''. America's principal lever to induce Santiago's compliance is trade: the American Congress has still not given the green light to an important free trade agreement with the United States. Cameroon - Bartered Commercial Assistance President Paul Biya is not interested in quarrelling with Paris, which accords his country substantial aid, but he is afraid to turn his back on the world's superpower. The American ambassador called on him to prepare a "prestige visit'' to Washington. But the United States may also threaten to reduce the commercial ties with this country. African countries have no right to AGOA's commercial preference system unless they avoid participation in activities harmful to the national security of the United States or its foreign policy. Pakistan - Kashmir in the Balance Pakistan has received large amounts of American aid as thanks for its support in the war against terrorism. President Pervez Musharraf clearly has a strategy of tightening his bonds with the world's superpower. But the Muslim Pakistani population is very hostile to a war against Iraq, which will strengthen the hand of Islamic extremists. Politically therefore, Musharraf has an interest in holding the line against Bush. But Islamabad fears that if it doesn't support the U.S., the American scales will tip towards its hereditary enemy, India, in the Kashmir crisis. (In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.) ************************************************************************* Ain't Karma A Bitch!
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