I'm not sure there is nothing behind the remark that the sum is somewhat
"average": a long time ago (1973...) I used sum (or rather average) of
uniform PRN to generate gaussian PRN. I think it described either in The Art
of Computer Programming - Semi-numerical algorithms (Knuth), and may be also
in Numerical Recipes.
I didn't check if the standard deviation for 6 values in [1, 49] is
consistent with the range used by your friend.
FWIW,
Jean-Louis
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dr. David Kirkby" <david.kir...@onetel.net>
To: <j...@quik.com>; "Discussion of precise time and frequency measurement"
<time-nuts@febo.com>
Sent: Thursday, December 24, 2009 11:03 PM
Subject: Re: [time-nuts] are any time-nuts also random-nuts?
J. Forster wrote:
Many years ago, when the State Lottern Numbers Game started up here, I
noticed that doubles were coming up a lot... like 4662. I was utterly
convinced they were overrepresented.
However, being cheap and sane, I decided to test the theory before
spending $$. I collected ALL the numbers for a year or more and did
statistical tests, including FFTs on each digit wheel.
Bottom line, the numbers were random. It was my PERCEPTION of a pattern
that was tricking me.
All in, I spent $1 for a ticket to read.
YMMV,
-John
There's a guy in my local pub, that believe he has a way to increase his
chances of winning the National Lottery in the UK. There are 49 balls
numbered 1-49, and 6 balls are chosen at 'random'.
What he has discovered, with the aid of a spreadsheet, is that when the 6
winning numbers are announced, they usually sum to a number somewhere in
the range 130 to 170. Very rarely is the sum very low or very high. So he
reckons that if he picks numbers 6 numbers, and ensures they sum to
something in the range 130 to 170, he has more chances of winning than if
he picks numbers with a low or a high sum.
Of course, the minimum they can sum to is 1+2+3+4+5+6 = 21, and the
maximum is 44+45+46+47+48+49 = 279.
My wife thought I was going to have an argument with him once over this,
so I decided to let him believe that his strategy maximises his chances of
winning.
I'm sure I buy him far more beers than he ever buys me, so I guess his
stratergy has not yet netted him the jackpot. I believe in the UK, the
exptected return on a ?1.00 ticket is ?0.14, which is why I never do the
lottery myself.
Dave
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