Hi Bob,
OK, given that, what is your view of the plot I presented?  Let's remember that 
I plotted this because I was trying to discover whether the EFC circuitry has a 
time-related drift, or  whether the DAC value drift I plotted with the GPSDO 
locked to the GPS was caused by the OCXO.

In one of your posts today, you talked about a long-term retrace lasting some 
months.  I've been using the term "aging".  Has my choice of terms caused the 
discussion to take a turn that it wouldn't have taken if I had used the term 
"retrace"?  The fact is that I don't know whether it's aging or retrace.  I'm 
not really clear on how to tell the difference.  I'm especially handicapped by 
not having the mfg specs for the OCXOs I use.  It could be that I simply 
haven't had the test unit under power for long enough to let the OCXO settle 
out.  And for sure when I added the test lead to the EFC (breaking a trace in 
the process) there was enough off time to thoroughly insult the OCXO.

Bob -----------------------------------------------------------------
AE6RV.com

GFS GPSDO list:
groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/GFS-GPSDOs/info

      From: Bob Camp <kb...@n1k.org>
 To: Bob Stewart <b...@evoria.net>; Discussion of precise time and frequency 
measurement <time-nuts@febo.com> 
 Sent: Monday, November 7, 2016 1:01 PM
 Subject: Re: [time-nuts] Thermal impact on OCXO
   
Hi

Thermocouples in test leads are nasty because they operate on the temperature
delta rather than the absolute temperature. It’s the gradient you have to worry 
about.
Until you have run out a few dozen sensors around your bench (or test chamber) 
and
monitored them for a few days … you won’t believe just how little “point A” has 
in common
with “point B”.

Bob

> On Nov 7, 2016, at 1:44 PM, Bob Stewart <b...@evoria.net> wrote:
> 
> -accidentally omitted timenuts from my reply to bob-
> Hi Bob,
> The data is at the 10uV level.  As to whether I've plotted "data" or data, I 
> can only report what I have.  It seems to be consistent over the long run.  I 
> would expect to see something else if it were just noise.  If the 4 
> attachments were strongly thermocoupled, wouldn't the data have a stronger 
> correlation to temperature, rather than just to temperature transients?
> 
> Bob -----------------------------------------------------------------
> AE6RV.com
> 
> GFS GPSDO list:
> groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/GFS-GPSDOs/info
> 
>      From: Bob Camp <kb...@n1k.org>
> To: Bob Stewart <b...@evoria.net> 
> Cc: Discussion of Precise Time and Frequency Measurement <time-nuts@febo.com>
> Sent: Monday, November 7, 2016 11:54 AM
> Subject: Re: [time-nuts] Thermal impact on OCXO
> 
> Hi
> 
> I would suggest you read the papers on the subject. They are out there. Even 
> over a few days
> OCXO aging is likely to be non-linear ( => curved, not straight line). On an 
> OCXO that is 
> warming up, your are dealing with retrace rather than aging. This can have an 
> impact for a 
> few months after turn on. I have one unit in the basement that took 9 months 
> to come out
> of retrace after being in storage for “a while”. It was an eBay item so no 
> idea just how long 
> the power off time was. 
> 
> Bob
> 
> 
>> On Nov 7, 2016, at 12:47 PM, Bob Stewart <b...@evoria.net> wrote:
>> 
>> Hi Bob,
>> 
>> When you say that OCXOs don't age in a linear fashion, what does that mean?  
>> IOW, is this a case where it's almost linear over a week, and the 
>> non-linearity is only detectable when you consider the longer term?  If 
>> that's the case, then it seems reasonable to use the past 3 or so days of 
>> data collection to project the near-term behavior; where near-term is less 
>> than 3 days into the future.
>> 
>> Bob
>>  
>> -----------------------------------------------------------------
>> AE6RV.com
>> 
>> GFS GPSDO list:
>> groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/GFS-GPSDOs/info
>> 
>> 
>> From: Bob Camp <kb...@n1k.org>
>> To: Bob Stewart <b...@evoria.net>; Discussion of precise time and frequency 
>> measurement <time-nuts@febo.com> 
>> Cc: Scott Stobbe <scott.j.sto...@gmail.com>
>> Sent: Monday, November 7, 2016 6:08 AM
>> Subject: Re: [time-nuts] Thermal impact on OCXO
>> 
>> Hi
>> 
>> 
>>> On Nov 5, 2016, at 10:43 PM, Bob Stewart <b...@evoria.net> wrote:
>>> 
>>> Hi Scott,
>>> D'oh.  Thanks for the correction!  Like I said, I don't do these 
>>> calculations often.  
>>> 
>>> If as Bob Camp implies, the aging isn't from the OXCO, then I'm a bit 
>>> stumped.  I do have an op-amp in the EFC string with  a voltage divider for 
>>> gain.  The resistors are Panasonic ERA-6AEDxxxV resistors.  Mouser says 
>>> they're temperature stable to 25PPM/C, but of course they don't mention an 
>>> aging rate.  I don't really see anything else, other than the OCXO, that is 
>>> likely to be prone to a linear type of aging.
>> 
>> OCXO’s don’t age in a linear fashion. At least 90% of them don’t. If you dig 
>> into the FCS papers there are various
>> curves proposed as models. Mil-O-55310 has one of them as the “official” 
>> approach. All of them have the basic 
>> issue of mistakenly fitting to to short a time constraint.
>> 
>> Bob
>> 
>>>  The aging rate appears to be stable from unit to unit, so naturally I 
>>>considered the OCXO first.  
>>> 
>>> There is one other bit in the EFC string that might be controversial, but I 
>>> don't see that it would be a candidate for the symptoms of aging.
>>> 
>>> Bob
>>>  -----------------------------------------------------------------
>>> AE6RV.com
>>> 
>>> GFS GPSDO list:
>>> groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/GFS-GPSDOs/info
>>> 
>>>      From: Scott Stobbe <scott.j.sto...@gmail.com>
>>> To: Bob Stewart <b...@evoria.net> 
>>> Cc: Discussion of Precise Time and Frequency Measurement 
>>> <time-nuts@febo.com>
>>> Sent: Saturday, November 5, 2016 9:19 PM
>>> Subject: Re: [time-nuts] Thermal impact on OCXO
>>> 
>>> If your DAC spans the full EFC range than 1LSB is 1/2^20 ~ 1 PPM of the EFC 
>>> range, and the EFC tuning range is 8/10E6 ~ 1 PPM full scale, so 1 LSB is 
>>> ~1PPT. So, if everything else is stable the DAC code reflects changes 
>>> solely due to the OCXO, which would be an aging of 24 PPT/day. 
>>> On Sat, Nov 5, 2016 at 9:57 PM, Bob Stewart <b...@evoria.net> wrote:
>>> 
>>> Hi Scott,
>>> The 20 bits span about 6 volts.  The EFC range spans about 8Hz (+/-4Hz).  I 
>>> don't do these calculations every day, but that's about 4.5PPT?
>>> Bob  ------------------------------ ------------------------------ -----
>>> AE6RV.com
>>> 
>>> GFS GPSDO list:
>>> groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/ GFS-GPSDOs/info
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> From: Scott Stobbe <scott.j.sto...@gmail.com>
>>> To: Bob Stewart <b...@evoria.net>; Discussion of precise time and frequency 
>>> measurement <time-nuts@febo.com> 
>>> Sent: Saturday, November 5, 2016 8:38 PM
>>> Subject: Re: [time-nuts] Thermal impact on OCXO
>>> 
>>> I think that's a nice plot, it looks like you have stepped 160 LSB over 7 
>>> days or roughly 1 LSB per hour. With a 20bit dac you are trimming maybe 1 
>>> ppt/LSB to 4 ppt/LSB? In allan devation terms, the case of 1ppt/LSB, solely 
>>> due to drift, you're at 1E-12 at 3600*sqrt(2) = 5000 s, in the case of 
>>> 4ppt/hour your at 1E-12 at 1280 s. Seems reasonable.
>>> On Sat, Nov 5, 2016 at 2:47 PM, Bob Stewart <b...@evoria.net> wrote:
>>> 
>>> Oh dear.  I attached the wrong file.  Here's the correct one.
>>>  ----------------------------- ------------------------------ ------
>>> AE6RV.com
>>> 
>>> GFS GPSDO list:
>>> groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/ GFS-GPSDOs/info
>>> 
>>> 
>>>    
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>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
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>> 
> 
> 
> 
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