Bill Batchelder used to tell us (in grad school), "All models are wrong in detail."
I think he stole it, though. :) m > -----Original Message----- > From: Mike Palij [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: Tuesday, March 28, 2006 8:57 AM > To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences > Cc: Mike Palij > Subject: RE: in search of "All models are wrong..." quotation > > On Mon, 27 Mar 2006 12:30:01 -0800, Horton, Joseph J. wrote: > >I can come close: > >"Since all models are wrong the scientist must be alert to what is > >importantly wrong." (p. 792) Box, G. E. P. (1976). Science and > >Statistics. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 71, > >791-799. > > Although this is close, a quick search of several databases > shows that the most likely source is: > > Box, G.E.P., Robustness in the strategy of scientific model > building, in Robustness in Statistics, R.L. Launer and G.N. > Wilkinson, Editors. 1979, Academic Press: New York. > > I found the above reference in a discussion on this website: > http://www.anecdote.com.au/archives/2006/01/all_models_are.html > > I can't find an electronic version of this paper but another > search found the quote and the Box (1979) ref in the > following article which is available online if one has access > to Sage journals: > > Weakliem, D.L. (2004). Introduction to the Special Issue on > Model Selection. Sociological Methods & Research, vol. 33, > no. 2, pp. 167-187, November 2004 > > For people involved in stat/math model development, the > entire issue is pretty interesting. One citation in the > Weakliem paper that caught my eye is: > > Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X. 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million > Regressions." American Economic Review (Papers and > Proceedings) 87:178-83. > > I think I just found a new definition of "overkill". > > -Mike Palij > New York University > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > >I can send a copy of the paper if you like. > > > >Joe > > > >Joseph J. Horton Ph. D. > >In God we trust. All others must bring data. > -----Original Message----- > From: David Epstein [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: Monday, March 27, 2006 3:12 PM > To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences > Subject: in search of "All models are wrong..." quotation[Spam score: > 8%][Scanned] > > Anyone happen to have this book? > > _Robustness in Statistics_, R.L. Launer and G.N. Wilkinson, > Editors. New York: Academic Press, 1979. > > It contains a chapter by George Box called "Robustness in the > strategy of scientific model building." And the chapter is > the source of a well-known quotation, variously rendered as: > > "All models are wrong, some are useful." (Ugh. Comma > splice.) "All models are wrong, but some are useful." > "All models are wrong; some models are useful." > > What's the correct version? > > thanks, > David Epstein > > > > --- > You are currently subscribed to tips as: > [EMAIL PROTECTED] To unsubscribe send a blank email to > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected] To unsubscribe send a blank email to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
