For those interested in statistics and baseball, there is the perennial issue
of the "Curse of the Bambino" - the Red Sox have not won the World Series
since "the Babe" Ruth left the Sox for the Yankees. I'd love to figure the
probability of a team not winning for this meany years. If anyone knows the
number of baseball teams in the AL and NL, can you email me privately with
this information? I realize there have been expansion teams added since "the
Babe" played, but I can get use the average number of teams, or, the number of
teams in the 1950/60s to figure the odds. I will assume each team has an equal
chance of winning at the outset, and estimate the probability of any one team
not winning for this many years. True, not all teams are equal at the
beginning of each year, but over several decades we'll assume a given team has
equivalent potential. If we can reject the null hypothesis, we can then
entertain specific alternate hypotheses: the management style of the Teams;
the Big Green Monster; the fickle fans; Chance (which _never_ precludes); OR,
maybe, the Curse!
Desperate times drive otherwise sane people to entertain strange hypotheses! I
remember a political commentator talking about the curse during Ken Burn's
_Baseball_ (what was her name - Marge?) talking about the Bill Buckner
"through the legs" error that tied the series with the Mets. The thing was,
all that error did was help _tie_ the series at 3 games each. Her son said
"don't worry, there is game 7 left to play." Marge replied to the effect that
- you don't understand. You are too young. The series is over, there is no
point watching game 7. Remember the year the Sox were _15_ games ahead of the
second place Yankees at mid-season, only to slump so badly into a tie there
was a one game tie-breaker with the Yankees at the end of the regular season?
Was there any point watching that game? Anybody watch Pedro Martinez injure
his back last night?
Ahmm . . . The link between this post and the agenda of tips: (1) use of
chance models and hypotheses testing (2) sports psychology (3) belief in
superstition :)
--
* John W. Kulig, Department of Psychology ************************
* Plymouth State College Plymouth NH 03264 *
* [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://oz.plymouth.edu/~kulig *
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* "I was made in secret and curiously wrought in the lowest *
* parts of the earth" - Psalm 139 *
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