Sorry Marc, no slur intended, only a cute header.
On Sun, 5 Nov 2000, G. Marc Turner wrote:
> Okay, after typing out something long and boring... here's the short version:
>
> 20 item test, 3 people taking it. One is a good guesser. One is an average
> guesser, and the other is a lousy guesser.
Now I know what a "good kisser" is, but what the heck is a "good
guesser"? Is this a personality trait? Does it mean that some
people have ESP?
No, no, no! There's only one kind of guesser, and the laws of
probability apply to all. One should only guess absolutely if one
has absolutely no clue. Then, on average, guessing will neither
help nor hurt under the rules of the game.
But if you can eliminate one possibility, and then guess at the
remainder, you're definitely ahead. Eliminate two, better
still....eliminate four, and you don't have to guess. You have
the answer.
-Stephen
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Stephen Black, Ph.D. tel: (819) 822-9600 ext 2470
Department of Psychology fax: (819) 822-9661
Bishop's University e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Lennoxville, QC
J1M 1Z7
Canada Department web page at http://www.ubishops.ca/ccc/div/soc/psy
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