Hi Mike-

Just a couple of thoughts to add to Jim's excellent response. The Canadian 
Correctional Service has, over the years, helped to develop a number of 
instruments to help parole boards make better decisions. Bob Hare's Psychopathy 
Checklist (revised) is just one example.

As far as exiling these people to a remote island, well that is a bad idea from 
a logistical point of view. Islands are actually hard to control as they offer 
a potentially infinite number of escape routes.

I was a prison psychologist for about ten years and I can tell you that dealing 
with cases like this was the most difficult thing (emotionally) that I have 
ever done. While we didn't always get it right we all gave it our best effort.

-Don.

----- Original Message -----
From: Michael Smith <tipsl...@gmail.com>
Date: Thursday, February 25, 2010 11:13 am
Subject: Re: [tips] So what's broke?
To: "Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS)" <tips@fsulist.frostburg.edu>

> Yes there are many variables and there is always an emotional
> component (with me at least) with regard to child abuse/homicide.
> 
> I was also asking as an intro psych student might, since the 
> story is
> a current event, and it seems at least that psychology has 
> failed to
> make much headway in providing the tools/understanding that the
> criminal justice system might need to do a better job. As "everyone
> knows" parole boards routinely let out people that should not be and
> that they can't see the obvious that anyone on the street can see.
> 
> Thanks for the links...I knew someone would come through :)
> 
> --Mike
> 
> On Wed, Feb 24, 2010 at 3:53 PM, Jim Clark 
> <j.cl...@uwinnipeg.ca> wrote:
> > Hi
> >
> > There are others who post here more capable than I am of 
> addressing this question, but Michael's (natural) response 
> appears to be driven by emotion rather than the psychological 
> literature on sex offenders.  A couple of observations:
> >
> > 1. With respect to the 90 registered offenders who were 
> interviewed, sex offender tends to be a very broad term, so the 
> 90 registered offenders needs to be viewed cautiously. One would 
> also want some idea of the base population within that 5 mile 
> radius ... 1,000 or 10,000 or 100,000 or ....
> >
> > 2. I know nothing about this particular case, but is it in 
> fact true (as implied perhaps by Michael) that the perpetrator 
> was a previously released offender?  If so, then one would 
> wonder whether it would have been possible to identify this 
> person as someone who would re-offend (see #3).  If not 
> previously arrested, then harsh penalties (exile!) would only be 
> relevant if harsh penalties were known to reduce levels of 
> offending in others.  How well has "3 strikes you're out" worked 
> in the USA (other than contributing to the bankruptcy of 
> California, of course)?
> >
> > 3. As with so many decisions, surely there must be some 
> balance between (a) keeping incarcerated those who will re-
> offend, and (b) not keeping incarcerated those who will not re-
> offend.  Here are some statistics on recidivism in sex offenders 
> from Canada Corrections, an organization that is I think well 
> respected for its research orientation (e.g., to development of 
> instruments for predicting recidivism).
> >
> > http://www.csc-scc.gc.ca/text/pblct/forum/e082/e082g-eng.shtml
> >
> > The gist of the statistics are that even after 5 years, a 
> substantial portion of sex offenders have not re-offended (or 
> more precisely have not been caught re-offending).
> >
> > 4. As to what is "broke about modern western society," we need 
> to be careful about drawing inferences about societies on the 
> basis of such cases.  To get some appreciation of the extent of 
> such violence, see:
> >
> > http://www.jimhopper.com/abstats/#unrpt
> >
> > For example, the report indicates almost 53,000 child 
> homicides worldwide in 2002.
> >
> > None of the above denies the validity of Michael's essential 
> point, that one would hope that more could be done to prevent 
> these horrific events.
> >
> > Take care
> > Jim
> >
> >
> > James M. Clark
> > Professor of Psychology
> > 204-786-9757
> > 204-774-4134 Fax
> > j.cl...@uwinnipeg.ca
> >
> > Department of Psychology
> > University of Winnipeg
> > Winnipeg, Manitoba
> > R3B 2E9
> > CANADA
> >
> >
> >>>> Michael Smith <tipsl...@gmail.com> 24-Feb-10 2:52 PM >>>
> > Having followed the recent heartbreaking news stories about 7 
> year old
> > Somer Thompson it really makes me wonder what's broke about modern
> > western society.
> >
> > Is it the justice system? As a society we (meaning those in 
> positions> of authority to change things) don't want to keep 
> sexual predators
> > away from society?
> > Is it the psychiatric/psychological assessment process where these
> > people are let out again?
> > Or is it just that this society is incapable of fixing this problem,
> > but we don't want to admit it?
> >
> > I mean the last news story I read said that the investigators 
> had just
> > finished interviewing the last of the ninety (yes ninety) registered
> > sexual predators within a 5 mile radius of the Thompson home.
> >
> > Is it time to start looking at some uninhabited islands in the 
> middle> of the ocean where they can be dropped off?
> >
> > --Mike
> >
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