On Mon, 2 Apr 2012, Marc Carter went:

A p of .05 does not automatically mean that 5% of the positive
results are false positives.  It just means that on any given test
(if everything else is correctly done) there's a probability of .05
that you're getting a false positive.

No--there's no way to calculate the probability that you're getting a
false positive.

The p value tells you the probability that you WOULD get a false
positive (i.e., your current results) IF THE NULL HYPOTHESIS WERE
TRUE.

A lot of null hypotheses aren't true.  How many?  Not calculable.

But that makes 5% an absolute worst-case scenario (if everything is
done right).

--David Epstein
  da...@neverdave.com

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