> On Aug 29, 2015, at 3:27 PM, Christopher Green <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> I was put in mind of Jeffrey Cummings work simulating the instability of p
> values.
Sorry, I meant Geoffrey. My talk transcriber didn't know which spelling I
intended.
Kris Greene
-------------------
>
>
>> On Aug 29, 2015, at 12:28 PM, Wuensch, Karl Louis <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> I don’t think the replication results are very surprising. It
>> seems to be closely related to the “file drawer problem” and publication
>> policy. Suzy Q and a bunch of others are, independently, studying the same
>> effect. The effect happens to be pretty small, and the sample sizes Suzy
>> and others use not very large. Sampling error leads half of the researchers
>> to underestimate the magnitude of the effect, half overestimating it. Suzy
>> is the lucky one who gets data leading to an overestimate sufficiently large
>> to produce significant results. Now this is not a Type I error, there is an
>> effect, but she has, unknowingly, overestimated the magnitude of the effect.
>> It should not be surprising that when others try to replicate it, they get
>> much smaller estimates of the magnitude of the effect.
>>
>> Yes, meta-analysis is called for here, if you can get the data out
>> of all those file drawers.
>>
>> Cheers,
>> <image001.jpg>
>> From: Jim Clark [mailto:[email protected]]
>> Sent: Friday, August 28, 2015 3:41 PM
>> To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS)
>> Subject: Re: [tips] PSYC failed the replication test
>>
>>
>>
>> Hi
>>
>> Some notable lapses I think. No mention of meta-analysis that I saw. And the
>> Science editor's comment that marginal results not be published is exactly
>> wrong. Every finding should be published so that studies can be aggregated.
>> Psychology made a big mistake when it turned from small papers consisting
>> mostly of methods and results for single studies to mega papers with
>> multiple studies and (inflated?) intros and discussions. Thes problems are
>> exacerbated by calls for larger and larger Ns.
>>
>> Jim
>>
>> Sent from my iPhone
>>
>> On Aug 28, 2015, at 2:33 PM, "Dennis Goff" <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> You all might find an article published on the Five Thirty Eight website
>> (link http://fivethirtyeight.com) useful when talking about this issue with
>> students. The article includes a very nice interactive demonstration of
>> p-hacking that I think will help students to understand that concept. Beyond
>> that, the article takes a balanced approach to the problems of
>> replicability, the growth in the number of journal articles being published,
>> fraud and other related topics. The title is Science Isn’t Broken by ,
>> Christie Aschwanden. Here is the link
>> http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/science-isnt-broken/
>>
>> Dennis
>>
>> ----------------------------------------------------------
>> Dennis M Goff
>> Charles A Dana Professor of Psychology
>> Chair Department of Psychology
>> Office: (434) 947-8547
>>
>> Randolph College
>> Founded as Randolph-Macon Woman's College in 1891
>> 2500 Rivermont Avenue
>> Lynchburg, VA 24503
>> www.randolphcollege.edu
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> From: Rick Froman [mailto:[email protected]]
>> Sent: Friday, August 28, 2015 2:17 PM
>> To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS)
>> <[email protected]>
>> Subject: RE:[tips] PSYC failed the replication test
>>
>>
>>
>> It is true that we only got a D+ L but 68% is quite a bit higher J than some
>> of the estimates of reproducibility I have heard bandied about (which are
>> close to zero).
>>
>> Rick
>>
>> Dr. Rick Froman
>> Professor of Psychology
>> Box 3519
>> John Brown University
>> 2000 W. University Siloam Springs, AR 72761
>> [email protected]
>> (479) 524-7295
>>
>>
>> From: Wuensch, Karl Louis [mailto:[email protected]]
>> Sent: Friday, August 28, 2015 12:59 PM
>> To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS)
>> <[email protected]>
>> Subject: [tips] PSYC failed the replication test
>>
>>
>>
>> This article is going on the reading list for my grad students in
>> stats. Once we have covered power and publication biases this article
>> should, I hope, lead to some lively discussion.
>>
>> http://www.sciencemag.org/content/349/6251/aac4716
>>
>> Cheers,
>> <image001.jpg>
>> Karl L. Wuensch, Professor and ECU Scholar/Teacher, Dept. of Psychology
>> East Carolina University, Greenville NC 27858-4353, USA, Earth
>> Associate Editor, Society & Animals
>> Voice: 252-328-9420 Fax: 252-328-6283
>> http://core.ecu.edu/psyc/wuenschk/klw.htm
>>
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