I don't think I will be doing this regularly, for a couple of reasons. I
don't think there will be as much variability in the 10:00 Leno replacement
shows, and it is really hard to get the late night numbers in a timely way
and ensure that you are comparing apples and apples. But I might do it
periodically just to see how things are going.
First, the 10:00 Slot.
* Replacement JLS *
M (L&O) 7.9/2.1 4.5/1.3
T (Parenthood) 8.2/3.1 5.9/1.9
W (SVU) 9.0/3.0 5.0/1.4
TH (Ref) 7.7/3.5 4.7/1.5
F (Dateline) 7.8/1.9 4.9/1.3
*Average 8.1/2.7 5.0/1.5*
[Again, I remove the first three weeks from the JLS averages].
NBC averaged 60% more viewers and 80% higher demo rating with the
replacement demo shows compared to the average of the JLS. This illustrates
the economic argument that NBC was making for the Leno Experiment -
presumably the JLS cost less than 80% of an average primetime hour to
produce (especially when you count the cost of the number of failed pilots
you had to make to get your 5 primetime shows). But it is also true that
there is a minimum number of viewers below which a network ceases to be a
viable or "going concern", and the JLS threatened to put NBC below that
line. Also, these numbers give their affiliates a fighting chance with the
late local news - and gives NBC at least a puncher's chance of developing a
break-out hit.
I was most interested in seeing the comparison for Dateline and the JLS on
Fridays. Presumably they are both low cost programs with mostly niche
appeal, but Dateline still outperformed Leno by 60% (50% in demo), and won
the hour for NBC, something the JLS never did. It does not mean that NBC
would have better off the last 6 months stripping Dateline instead of Leno
at 10:00 - but it almost does. I was second most interested in how SVU
would do. I am a big L&O fan, but grew to hate this show and have not seen
it since season 2. However I thought one of the bigger causalities of the
Leno Experiment was SVU - it was a strong performer for NBC at 10:00, and
the move to 9:00 really hurt its ratings. I wanted to see if SVU could
recapture its old power when it moved back to 10:00, and it looks like it
did. I can't find the average 10:00 ratings for SVU last year, but this week
it came in a strong second to CSI:NY (and only by .1 in the demo, 3.0 to
3.1). The Ref had the fewest number of viewers, but the best demo rating of
the 5 NBC 10:00 shows (that might be due in part to the Office Baby
special). I read that NBC was disappointed with Parenthood's numbers, but
they are not a disaster. This is the kind of show that, if it is going to
work, they are going to have to be patient with it and let it build.
I think all of this shows the way forward for NBC. Shows like Dateline and
SVU can give NBC some stability, and then they need to take some chances
with a couple of the other hours and hope for a big winner or two. If next
year parenthood is getting closer to 11M viewers (The Good Wife had 13M vs
Parenthood this week, but lost to it in the demo rating) than 8M, NBC would
actually be in very good shape, with 3 well performing nights at 10:00 pm.
The problem with the JLS is that, even if it worked, it would have only
locked NBC into a marginal primetime profile. At least now they have a
chance to cycle back up near the top.
The Late Shift:
Leno Dave
M: 6.6/1.6 3.8/1.1
T: 5.8/1.6 3.7/1.0
W: 5.4/1.5 3.7/1.0
TH: 5.1/1.5 3.9/1.1
F: N/A N/A
I am less confident in these numbers - the late night numbers get reported
less often, more slowly, and in about 4 different versions, so I am not
always sure I am comparing the same kind of number - this is my best effort.
It is too early to draw many conclusions from these numbers. Everyone
expected Leno to get big numbers the first couple of weeks, so we will have
to see where it stabilizes. I expected him to stabilize around 4.8M/1.4, if
Friday is his second night in a row at the level it might be worrisome that
he has gotten so close to that level already by day 4 of the first week -
though it might just mean that he hit his stride right away. I think it is
physically impossible for Leno to get less than 4.5M viewers a night - no
matter where or when he is on, there seem to be about that many Americans
who like his show and want to watch it. This is his real advantage over Dave
- there are only about 3.5M Americans who will watch Dave read the yellow
pages (and I of course am one of these). I expect this to stabilize around
4.7 to 3.8 (1.4 to 1.1 in the demo), with occasional ties and wins to Dave,
which would make it a rather tighter race than it was pre-Leno Experiment,
but still advantage Leno. But we will see - I have been reading a lot of
comments by wild eyed conservatives that Leno is now their hero, so he may
ride a Palin bump to a bigger margin. Of course we note that if he
stabilizes around 5M he will have tied his own 10:00 number. More people
watched Leno his first week back to the Tonight Show at 11:35 than watched
his last week at the Jay Leno Show at 10:00 (why did they even think of
putting him on at 10:00 again?).
The good news for the Dave crowd is that even with all of the media
attention and high profile guests, Dave's numbers did not go down much.
Leno's return brought more viewers back to late night, but did not seem to
take many away from Dave. Going back to #2 may hurt Dave (or at least his
hard core fans) feelings, but it does not look like it is going to hurt CBS.
--
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