Let me preface by saying that no one really knows the extent of the impact of a hurricane until it actually passes, but my personal opinion is that she should be fine where she is (unless, perhaps, she's in a basement apartment.
The "Zone A" evacuation is precautionary. To get to a Zone B or C evacuation would take, IMO, at least a Cat 3, likely 4, hurricane. Irene is currently a Cat 1 with expected "weakening" to Tropical Storm (winds less than 75 mph) after is passes NYC. The NYC transit system is shutting down as of 12PM ET, but it takes about 8 hours to complete (likely the final few hours spent on garaging buses and moving trains to train yards and allowing employees to get home). Taxis will operate for as long as the drivers feel safe plus "gypsy cabs" -- private car services -- will be allowed to pick up passengers via street hails as opposed to the normal telephone arrangements. The big issues for NYC residents will be three fold. First, wind. Advice: stay indoors and away from the windows. It is not the wind per se to be concerned about, but the debris the wind may pick up from rooftops and construction sites (many of which are hundreds of feet in the air) that is likely to be the problem. Stay indoors. Second, flooding. It isl likely your daughter lives in a walk up so she is not likely to be flooded out. But subway stations and tunnels (as mentioned on this list earlier) are up to four stories underground. They will flood as drainage and/or pumps are overwhelmed by the unusual volume of water (which is why the transit system is shutting down at noon). Third, power failure. There of course can be a power failure in NYC almost any day, so she should have flashlights and perhaps a lantern (battery powered) on hand just in case. Avoid candles as they are a fire risk. Relocate? It is likely too late as hotel space is scarce. If you or she feels she must relocate, don't go off of Manhattan which would require using a bridge or tunnel (it is an island after all), both of which are impacted early by high winds/heavy rain. If she has a friend in midtown where she can crash for a night, that should be more than adequate. *One warning:* Cell service *WILL *be slammed during and just after the storm. Calls may not go through. BUT, emails and texts are much more likely to work (due to their lower bandwidth requirement). So tell her to keep in touch via text or email to keep you assured. Keep in mind that the storm will pass NYC in time to likely see the sunset Sunday night. NYC and Manhattan in particular (and its residents) are extremely resilient. Unless transportation systems are still down by Monday morning, she should expect to show up for work -- on time. Good luck to her and all. If you want the latest news, you can always go on the 'Net to local NYC TV station Web sites like Http://www.7online.com have updated news and weather. Ron Casalotti Wayne, NJ On Sat, Aug 27, 2011 at 6:33 AM, <tvornottv+nore...@googlegroups.com> wrote: > Today's Topic Summary > > Group: http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv/topics > > - NO TV: Hurricane Info <#1320acd9ed99e641_group_thread_0> [2 Updates] > > Topic: NO TV: Hurricane > Info<http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv/t/b2088ee18c3dd426> > > PGage <pga...@gmail.com> Aug 26 09:52PM -0700 > ^<#1320acd9ed99e641_digest_top> > > My daughter (age 22) is currently living in what I think is referred to > as > the lower east side of Manhattan (near east 2nd street, around one of > the > alphabet avenues, I think A, B or C). Looking at the Hurricane Map for > Manhattan, it seems like she is right on the border between Zone B & > Zone C > (which is marked for evacuation in the case of a Level 2 or 3 > Hurricane). > > They seem to be predicting that by the time it gets to NYC it will be > Category 1 or even down to tropical storm, but the problem is, the > national > news seems to be saying that, regardless of the strength of the storm, > it is > moving slow enough, and it is large enough and targeted on NY Harbor, > that > there will be a hell of a lot of water in the storm surge, which will > likely > flood coastal areas of Manhattan. I am trying to do 2 things: 1 - > persuade > my potentially foolishly brave young adult daughter to be better safe > than > sorry and leave her apartment tomorrow before the buses and trains > stop, and > 2 - if successful with #1, figure out where a safe place is to move her > to > (trying to get a hotel room). I was able to get a reservation for > sunday > night at a national chain hotel around 35th street and 6th avenue, > which > looks to be a safe location under even the worst case scenarios, but > was not > able to find a vacancy for Saturday night at any medium priced (3 star > or > so) hotel in that "white" (safe) zone. The problem there is that the > buses > and trains are going to stop at Noon, so even though she probably does > not > need to leave her apartment tomorrow, if she leaves sunday morning she > will > have to walk 2 miles to the hotel (unless the taxis will still be > operating?). > > I could probably find a room for her for saturday and sunday out of > Manhattan, but I can't with confidence figure out where to send her out > of > the line of fire. Much of New Jersey seems to be in danger, and, while > she > has friends in the Scarsdale area, it seems they might be in some > danger > too. > > Here are my questions for anyone familiar with the area and conditions: > 1. Would you evacuate if you were in a Zone B/C area before the City > requires it? It seems like, even if the chances of serious flooding are > minimal, waiting until you know for sure might be too late, since there > will > be no way to get out of there. > > 2. Will taxis be operating in Manhattan Sunday morning (even when the > buses > and subways are offline)? > > 3. Where off of Manhattan island would you recommend trying to find a > moderately priced, safe hotel room? Should I be looking in New Jersey > (it > seems like there are few places there that are not kind of close to a > river > at least), or more update or western New York? > > Of course her mother and I would like to put her on a plane back to > civilization in California for a few days visit - aside from the ouch > of the > cost of a r/t ticket with no notice, she does have a really good > internship > that she has just started, and would not like to miss on Monday (or > Tuesday, > if weather requires it). > > > > > David Bruggeman <bru...@yahoo.com> Aug 27 12:38AM -0700 > ^<#1320acd9ed99e641_digest_top> > > I can only speak with much confidence to general trends with the storm, > which has been curving through the eastern part of the projected path over > the last 24 hours or so. Points west and north of the NYC area seem to be > a > safer bet (current track places the storm center amidst Long Island shortly > after 8 am Sunday), though heavy rain and wind are likely for at least 125 > miles on either side of the eye. I would try to get out of Westchester, > and > aim for west of the Hudson. Probably not easily done, though Metro North > Rail does go much further north and west than Scarsdale. > > > If there's a bridge crossing involved in her route, the earlier the > better, since they take the early brunt of wind. > > > My employer is headquartered in Manhattan (I work in D.C.) and they > indicated they will try and have some kind of messaging in place by Sunday > evening wrt who should come in (if anyone) on Monday. If she hasn't > already > checked in with her internship place, that should probably be part of her > conversations this weekend. > > Something worth figuring out is how long it will take to restore > service to NYC mass transit once an all-clear is sounded. If it's taking > time to get trains to safe locations, it will take time to get them into > operation for Monday. Even if your daughter is expected in on Monday, > transit delays seem likely. > > Best to everyone, > David > > > > ________________________________ > From: PGage <pga...@gmail.com> > To: tvornottv@googlegroups.com > Sent: Saturday, August 27, 2011 12:52 AM > Subject: [TV orNotTV] NO TV: Hurricane Info > > > My daughter (age 22) is currently living in what I think is referred to > as the lower east side of Manhattan (near east 2nd street, around one of > the > alphabet avenues, I think A, B or C). Looking at the Hurricane Map for > Manhattan, it seems like she is right on the border between Zone B & Zone C > (which is marked for evacuation in the case of a Level 2 or 3 Hurricane). > > They seem to be predicting that by the time it gets to NYC it will be > Category 1 or even down to tropical storm, but the problem is, the national > news seems to be saying that, regardless of the strength of the storm, it > is > moving slow enough, and it is large enough and targeted on NY Harbor, that > there will be a hell of a lot of water in the storm surge, which will > likely > flood coastal areas of Manhattan. I am trying to do 2 things: 1 - persuade > my potentially foolishly brave young adult daughter to be better safe than > sorry and leave her apartment tomorrow before the buses and trains stop, > and > 2 - if successful with #1, figure out where a safe place is to move her to > (trying to get a hotel room). I was able to get a reservation for sunday > night at a national chain hotel around 35th street and 6th avenue, which > looks to be a safe location under even the worst case scenarios, but was > not > able to find a vacancy for Saturday night at any medium priced (3 > star or so) hotel in that "white" (safe) zone. The problem there is > that the buses and trains are going to stop at Noon, so even though she > probably does not need to leave her apartment tomorrow, if she leaves > sunday > morning she will have to walk 2 miles to the hotel (unless the taxis will > still be operating?). > > I could probably find a room for her for saturday and sunday out of > Manhattan, but I can't with confidence figure out where to send her out of > the line of fire. Much of New Jersey seems to be in danger, and, while she > has friends in the Scarsdale area, it seems they might be in some danger > too. > > Here are my questions for anyone familiar with the area and conditions: > 1. Would you evacuate if you were in a Zone B/C area before the City > requires it? It seems like, even if the chances of serious flooding are > minimal, waiting until you know for sure might be too late, since there > will > be no way to get out of there. > > 2. Will taxis be operating in Manhattan Sunday morning (even when the > buses and subways are offline)? > > 3. Where off of Manhattan island would you recommend trying to find a > moderately priced, safe hotel room? Should I be looking in New Jersey (it > seems like there are few places there that are not kind of close to a river > at least), or more update or western New York? > > Of course her mother and I would like to put her on a plane back to > civilization in California for a few days visit - aside from the ouch of > the > cost of a r/t ticket with no notice, she does have a really good internship > that she has just started, and would not like to miss on Monday (or > Tuesday, > if weather requires it). > > > > -- TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to tvornottv@googlegroups.com To unsubscribe from this group, send email to tvornottv-unsubscr...@googlegroups.com For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en
