On Mon, Apr 23, 2012 at 7:23 PM, PGage <pga...@gmail.com> wrote:

>
> Carter does suggest a real explanation for the decline - DVR and other
> time-shifting mechanisms are finally maturing.



But that is the flaw in his story.  He's explaining season/series lows for
programs like "Modern Family" and "Community" for live plus same day
ratings but then explaining that DVR playback is good for almost a five
rating most nights.  Every week they have a new episode, "Modern Family" is
the #1 program in live plus seven day lift.  They add five million viewers,
the adults 18-49 gains are huge.  Their live plus three ratings gains are
huge as well.

He's knocking programs for not being watched live plus same day because
people are watching their DVRs.  When the live plus seven numbers are in
for the entire season, I'd be interested to see what the declines are for
the non-"Idol" programs.  "Idol" may be finally showing some age but I'm
guessing "Modern Family" and other popular programs have year to year
ratings changes in line with what has happened in the past.

And as Joe Flint noted (
https://twitter.com/#!/JBFlint/status/194513807471681537), Carter's done
this story in the past.  VCRs were killing TV in 1990:

http://www.nytimes.com/1990/04/30/business/the-media-business-television-are-there-fewer-viewers-networks-challenge-nielsen.html

TVG

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