That and he's determined to outlast Jay. On Monday, August 27, 2012 9:33:38 PM UTC-4, Michael wrote: > > Only in the wake of the "Tonight Show" cutbacks am I realizing that > Dave may very well be staying on the air more for the benefit for a > large and loyal staff than because of his desire to hold onto a > familiar job that keeps him somewhat engaged on a regular basis. > > On Aug 27, 3:09 pm, PGage <pga...@gmail.com> wrote: > > On Mon, Aug 27, 2012 at 11:27 AM, Tom Wolper <twol...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > (SNIP) The story I see between the lines is that the economics of late > > > night > > > TV are changing much faster than the networks can adapt. I can see CBS > > > and NBC hanging on to Letterman and Leno even at a slight loss for a > > > couple of years just to maintain the appearance of continuity. I don't > > > think either wants to walk away knowing the loss of jobs of people > > > they have worked closely over the years. I don't know what will happen > > > at the next contract negotiations for either if what is now breaking > > > even/slight profit/slight loss turns into steep losses. > > > > I think you are basically right here, though it is possible to > exaggerate > > the point. I don't think the late night slot is operating at a loss for > CBS > > or NBC (certainly not at the latter since the cuts, and maybe not even > > before). The LAT piece says that the Tonight Show made NBC $100M in > profit > > at its peak in the 1990s. It also says the the late night TV market is > > worth $5.6B, and that cable takes about 84% of that. That leaves close > to > > $900M for the broadcast networks to go after, though that portion of the > > pie is shrinking, the LAT says it dropped 5% last year. After the > Tonight > > Show cuts, their yearly budget is somewhere around $76.5M ($1.7M/week, > not > > sure how many weeks a year they are in production, I used 45 to get the > > $76.5 figure above). I have to assume NBC gets at least 1/3 of the > > available broadcast late night market, which would be around $300M, > which > > would give them more than $200M in profits from the Tonight Show. I may > be > > off here and there, but I think it is a good bet NBC is making more than > > $100M a year in profits from the 11:35pm hour, and certainly not losing > any > > money. > > > > But the huge salaries that Leno and Dave got in the 1990s were based on > a > > significantly larger revenue stream, and it does seem very likely that > the > > stream is not only smaller now, but will continue to get smaller over > the > > next decade. Not only have both Dave and Leno taken a paycut in recent > > years, but the signal seems clear that the next generation that replaces > > them should be expecting to be paid $20M+/year. Kimmel makes about > $6.5M, > > Fallon about $6M, Ferguson seems to make a lot more - I am seeing > $12.7M. I > > am not sure how much more Kimmel is getting with his move, but I doubt > it > > is more than $10M, if that. >
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