On Thu, Jul 30, 2015 at 8:11 AM, Bob Jersey <bob.in.jer...@juno.com> wrote:
> Remembering to untick the CC's this time... {headhurt}
>
> Tim Goodman on THR
> <http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/bastard-machine/trevor-noah-challenges-facing-daily-812087>
> (link) plays the pessimist as to Noah's future success, contending that
> while some of previous hosts' fans always eventually discover the newer
> ones, enough will pass on him, and as related technology progresses, those
> that stay will do so mainly via the online route... which will also work
> out well for Oliver.
>
Goodman's column is the kind of thing that really irritates me about
opinion "journalism" these days. It pretends to be expert, critical
reflection and analysis, but is just cherry picking. It is the equivalent
of a sports columnist writing a piece that says that yes, the Yankees may
win more games this season, but in their expert opinion they are unlikely
to score as many as 21 runs in the same game again.
It is a safe bet that the ratings for Noah's TDS will be lower than
Stewart's. That would be true without any role played by fickle millennials
or a la carte media options or invoking neo-phobia and the psychology of
the familiar. Stewart did something unusual in taking a small basic cable
show and giving it numbers that approached the big networks. It is unlikely
that anyone, including himself, would ever do that, and all the more so
that anyone would do it again.
The pro analysis here is not "Noah's ratings will be lower than Stewart's"
- we all know that. What would be helpful is some a priori benchmark that
would allow us to make a judgement about how well Noah is doing. If 3
months in Noah's ratings are 25% lower than Stewart, would that be good or
bad?
We have a marker by looking at Wilmore - his ratings have been about 40%
lower than Colbert's. That is not a perfect model - I think Stewart
probably has a "bigger tent" than Colbert did, and because of that may be
likely to bleed off more viewers when the one personality that bound them
together is gone. OTOH, Wilmore is arguably more different from Colbert
than Noah is from Stewart, so there is a chance he can hold on to more of
the original audience.
Until somebody gives me a better benchmark, I will be using 40% as the mark
of minimal success for Noah. At the 3 month mark, if his ratings are no
more than 40% reduced from Stewart's, I will think that he is on the right
track (I would like to know what percent of Stewart's salary Noah is
making).
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