Public bug reported:

Upgrading from Lucid to Precise.  I got the "unable to calculate
upgrade" error.  Yes, I have installed other packages from other
sources.  So how do I upgrade?  How do I know what it wants me to do to
enable it to proceed?

ProblemType: Bug
DistroRelease: Ubuntu 10.04
Package: update-manager 1:0.134.12.1
ProcVersionSignature: Ubuntu 2.6.32-45.101-generic 2.6.32.60+drm33.26
Uname: Linux 2.6.32-45-generic x86_64
NonfreeKernelModules: nvidia
Architecture: amd64
Date: Tue Dec 25 22:50:52 2012
GConfNonDefault:
 /apps/update-manager/check_new_release_ignore=
 /apps/update-manager/first_run=false
 /apps/update-manager/show_versions=false
 /apps/update-manager/window_size=(600,597)
InstallationMedia: Ubuntu 9.10 "Karmic Koala" - Release amd64 (20091027)
PackageArchitecture: all
ProcEnviron:
 PATH=(custom, no user)
 LANG=en_US.utf8
 SHELL=/bin/bash
SourcePackage: update-manager
VarLogDistupgradeAptclonesystemstate.tar.gz: Error: [Errno 13] Permission 
denied: '/var/log/dist-upgrade/apt-clone_system_state.tar.gz'
VarLogDistupgradeTermlog:

** Affects: update-manager (Ubuntu)
     Importance: Undecided
         Status: New


** Tags: amd64 apport-bug dist-upgrade lucid

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1093747

Title:
  Tried to upgrade, useless error

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