After some consideration - maybe real life scenario will be better. Regard 
Linux, Nvidia, ATI and some DVB-T dongle without driver in current kernel. 
There will be 6 groups of users:
a) only Linux, (i=1)
b) Linux and Nvidia, (i=2)
c) Linux and ATI, (i=2)
d) Linux and DVB-T dongle, (i=2)
e) Linux, Nvidia and DVB-T dongle, (i=3)
f) Linux, ATI and DVB-T dongle. (i=3)
These are all kernel or kernel modules so they could share the same threshold 
value. You can calculate percentage of users for Linux-only using normal 
distribution and use it directly for group a), for other groups will be easy to 
calculate parameters of their distribution using the i value (number of random 
variables) and recalculate pristine threshold for all packages from b) to f) 
groups accordingly, then compare it with maximum value of random generated 
numbers for Linux, graphics and DVB-T. That way will be possible to determine 
percentage of users that installed newer versions of packages and this 
percentage can be equal for all groups (from a) to f)). The value of i can be 
estimated using list of installed packages for every user reporting bug.
For other software packages it should be similar as for Linux example.

I can be wrong, so correct me if you find any mistake.

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1214482

Title:
  Not-grouping dependent packages in Phased Updates changes propability
  distribution for entire group of dependent packages.

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