This seems to be the culprit:

  MarkInstall libqt5quick5-gles:amd64 < 5.15.10+dfsg-2 -> 5.15.13+dfsg-2 @ii 
umU Ib > FU=0
  Installing libqt5gui5-gles:amd64 as Depends of libqt5quick5-gles:amd64
    MarkKeep libqt5gui5t64:amd64 < none -> 5.15.13+dfsg-1ubuntu1 @un umN > FU

It's not clear to me why this happens, but this is blocking
libqt5gui5t64:amd64 from being installed which then later leads to
hilarious conflicts.

Likewise

  MarkDelete libcap2-bin:amd64 < 100:2.48-1 @ii mK NPb Ib > FU=1

seems wrong as well, the culprit for that is funny:

2024-09-24 18:26:04,453 DEBUG Found replacement libcap2-bin:i386 for
libcap2-bin

I am going to use this bug to track the 2nd issue.

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/2081864

Title:
  Upgrade from mantic to noble aborted. Broken packages

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