It turns out I had versions of libgl1-mesa{,-dri} installed that were newer than what edgy itself provided (maybe I got them from a compiz repository?)
When I downgraded these from 6.5.1+cvs20060824 to 6.4.1-0ubuntu8 (dapper's latest), update-manager was able to proceed further to a dialog stating: "Do you want to start the upgrade?". -- A unresolvable problem occurred while calculating the upgrade. https://launchpad.net/bugs/67348 -- ubuntu-bugs mailing list ubuntu-bugs@lists.ubuntu.com https://lists.ubuntu.com/mailman/listinfo/ubuntu-bugs