ugnet_: Re: [DHR] Rwanda May 2003 : Analysis by The Economist Intelligence Unit

[Mulindwa Edward]

But has any body considered the fact that Paul kagame has made him self a president for the next 14 years? That and only that should make every body shiver for at least Museveni did not come out so blatantly as a dictator. For that basically means that in those 14 years there is no single Rwandese who can be a batter politician than him.   I continue to do what I have done for the last 20 years, look at Africa and our leaders as they come and go in our own eyes, and they all fail to learn even a single lesson as we the population fail to learn as well. Kagame should have known better.   Em               The Mulindwas Communication Group "With Yoweri Museveni, Uganda is in anarchy"             Groupe de communication Mulindwas "avec Yoweri Museveni, l'Ouganda est dans l'anarchie" ----- Original Message ----- From: Placide Muhigana To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Wednesday, May 28, 2003 12:51 PM Subject: [DHR] Rwanda May 2003 : Analysis by The Economist Intelligence Unit Extracts   - (The) Mouvement democratique republicain (MDR), is in disarray, plagued by factional disputes, which many suspect have been fomented by the RPF   - Multiparty politics is being tightly managed by the RPF to ensure its own victory. -The new constitution gives the government extensive powers to rule against those that it claims are acting against national unity, and these ill-defined powers will be used by the authorities to neutralise those that challenge the RPF's political hegemony. The domination of political power by Tutsis -- one of the main issues that actually motivates debate -- will remain an "untouchable" issue before and after the election.    - Exiled politicians remain dispersed and weak, but are starting to join forces, and will pose a political challenge one day, particularly if they can secure a powerful backer. But this day seems far off, and the RPF will remain in power for many years to come.   THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT, MAY 2003   Outlook for 2003-04: Domestic politics   Rwanda's first multiparty presidential and parliamentary elections since independence are scheduled for November 2003. The elections will mark the return to normal political activity which was suspended after the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) took power in 1994, ending the genocide in which up to 1m Tutsis and moderate Hutus were killed. Since then, a controlled form of political activity was allowed in which parties that had been elected before the genocide were allowed to resume their seats in parliament but were banned from campaigning or engaging in "normal" political activity. The elections are to be preceded by a referendum on a new constitution in late May, which is expected to be approved by voters without objection or much enthusiasm. The government has promised free and fair elections, and the voting is indeed likely to be relatively transparent and free of noticeable coercion. However, the transition to open, multiparty politics is being tightly managed by the RPF to ensure its own victory. As a result, there is concern that even as the government opens the political space formally, it will be shutting it down privately through a number of undeclared mechanisms and strategies. First of all, the current ban on party politics outside parliament will remain until after the constitution is ratified by referendum, giving political parties just five months to prepare for the elections. The state authorities will also keep a close eye on the RPF's political competitors once campaigning starts, and will act swiftly against any deemed to be promoting ethnic division. The new constitution gives the government extensive powers to rule against those that it claims are acting against national unity, and these ill-defined powers will be used by the authorities to neutralise those that challenge the RPF's political hegemony. The domination of political power by Tutsis -- one of the main issues that actually motivates debate -- will remain an "untouchable" issue before and after the election. As a result, it will be hard for the other parties to differentiate themselves from the RPF. Meanwhile, the main rival to the RPF, the Mouvement democratique republicain (MDR) which ruled from independence until 1973, is consumed by internal division and it is unlikely that the party will even unite behind a single candidate for the presidential election.   A convincing RPF victory is expected in both the presidential and the parliamentary elections and, though some human rights organisations are bound to challenge their democratic legitimacy, diplomatic observers and the international community will endorse them. Following the RPF's victory in the elections, there will be no break in continuity with the policies of the current administration. The weak opposition will be contained and an ever shrinking elite will retain its political dominance, as it points to the election result as proof of multi-party democracy and power sharing. Below the surface, those that break with the ruling elite will head for exile, joining the many that have already done so. Exiled politicians remain dispersed and weak, but are starting to join forces, and will pose a political challenge one day, particularly if they can secure a powerful backer. But this day seems far off, and the RPF will remain in power for many years to come.   Political scene: Elections will be held in November 2003   The presidential and legislative elections will be held in November 2003, according to the national electoral commission (REC) which was itself finally confirmed by parliament in February. All Rwandans of the diaspora will be entitled to vote, according to the REC, provided they are not registered as refugees, which estimates the total electorate to be around 4m. Those living inside the country will vote at 1,600 polling stations, watched by 350 invited international election observers. President Kagame has not declared that he will be a candidate, but he is expected to be the choice of the RPF. The country's next largest party, Mouvement democratique republicain (MDR), is in disarray, plagued by factional disputes, which many suspect have been fomented by the RPF (November 2001, page 13). The leadership of the MDR is contested by Celestin Kabanda and Emmanuel Twagirumukiza, who both say that they will stand as the MDR's candidate in the presidential election. However, Mr Kabanda is reported to have been expelled from his party -- a further sign of its internal division. A former prime minister Faustin Twagiramungu, who has been in exile in Belgium for several years, has also said that he wants to stand for the presidency. However, the government has said that Mr Twagiramungu cannot become a candidate unless he returns to Rwanda.   Another potential heavyweight candidate likely to be prevented from standing is a former president, Pasteur Bizimungu, who leads Parti democratique pour le renouveau (PDR), but has been in prison since mid- 2002 on charges of stirring up racial division (August 2002, page 13). Despite pleas from human rights organisations, the ban on party political activity imposed in 1994 will be lifted only after the constitution has been ratified by referendum in late May, giving political parties just five months to organise themselves, raise funds, and campaign for the election. This gives the well-organised and relatively wealthy RPF an enormous advantage over its rivals. In late 2002 the International Crisis Group (ICG), a Brussels-based think tank, published a report stating that the advantages for the RPF that are built in to the system indicate that the transition to democracy is spurious and that the legacy of the 1994 genocide is being manipulated to perpetuate the grip on power of a small elite. The report called on the international community not to support the elections (February 2003, page 14). However, the ICG's call appears not to have been heeded by donors, many of whom are planning substantial material and financial assistance.   Do You Yahoo!? -- Une adresse @yahoo.fr gratuite et en français ! Testez le nouveau Yahoo! Mail "UT UNUM SINT". " BE NICE TO PEOPLE ON YOUR WAY UP, BECAUSE YOU MIGHT MEET THEM ON YOUR WAY DOWN"Jimmy DURANTE. COMBATTONS la haine SANS complaisance, PARTOUT et avec Toute ENERGIE!!!!!! Let's  rather prefer Peace, Love , Hope and Life, and get together as one!!! Inno TWAGIRA L'utilisation du service Yahoo! Groupes est soumise à l'acceptation des Conditions d'utilisation et de la Charte sur la vie privée. Sponsor Yahoo! Groupes "UT UNUM SINT". " BE NICE TO PEOPLE ON YOUR WAY UP, BECAUSE YOU MIGHT MEET THEM ON YOUR WAY DOWN"Jimmy DURANTE. COMBATTONS la haine SANS complaisance, PARTOUT et avec Toute ENERGIE!!!!!! Let's  rather prefer Peace, Love , Hope and Life, and get together as one!!! Inno TWAGIRA L'utilisation du service Yahoo! Groupes est soumise à l'acceptation des Conditions d'utilisation et de la Charte sur la vie privée.