Sunday, August 31, 2003
What Kibaki should consider
in picking new VP
By MUTAHI NGUNYI
According to Niccolo Machiavelli, a new Prince must do all the bad things at once and implement the good things slowly.
President Kibaki did it the other way round. But with the death of Vice-President Michael Wamalwa, he has the opportunity to do a few ‘bad’ things. In fact, this gives him a chance to correct the fatal flaws of the last eight months. And while at it, the President must only think of himself. Self-preservation and love should be his only consideration.
In my view, this is what we should expect of him as he chooses the next VP. I am actually persuaded that he has a candidate in mind already. But this person cannot be appointed until the Bomas II talks are concluded. It is not in the President’s interest to do so. And if the appointment happens with Bomas ongoing, the President will be executing a scheme. Let me expound on this.
In appointing a VP, the President is likely to have four other considerations – all selfish. The first and most obvious is maintaining the status quo. If he chooses this, then Mr Moody Awori would be his candidate. In appointing him Vice-President, ‘uncle Moody’ will have changed nothing in our politics. His appointment will not reduce the tensions between NAK and LDP.
Similarly, it will not cool the tempers at Bomas II. And more fundamentally, the President will be telling Kenyans that these wrangles are unimportant. They do not deserve his political intervention. If this happens, the country will have lost a great opportunity for healing. And if this is the candidate in the president’s mind, he can be appointed tomorrow!
The President’s second consideration has to do with regime consolidation. The death of Mr Wamalwa gives him the opportunity to hit one bird with two stones: To make sure it is dead. That is, he can deal with the Narc crisis once and for all by appointing a VP and a non-executive Prime Minister. And if he decides to do so, the beneficiaries would be Mr Raila Odinga and one of the younger Luhya ministers. In this case, he would make Mr Odinga the VP and appoint someone like Mr Musikari Kombo the non-executive prime minister. What would the repercussions of this be?
Let us begin with the way the Luhya community would react. In my view, they would take the offer of a non-executive prime minister at zero-option. I am compelled by two reasons here: One, they do not have a king-in-waiting. The one they had (Mr Wamalwa) just died, and the remaining one (‘Uncle Moody’), is older than the President. In sum, they are currently out of the race on account of age and heath. Two, if the President denied them the VP position, nothing would happen.
Historical records reflect that the Luhya ‘tribe’ was created by the colonial administration some time in the 1940s. They did not exist before then and have no history as a ‘tribe’. As such, the Luhya have never acted collectively in politics. And for the President, this is a good thing. It means that he can give them a non-executive prime minister’s position and get away with it. Or what do you think?
But what does it mean to make Mr Odinga the Vice-President? President Kibaki can only do this to clip his wings. Rather than fight him, the President can co-opt him. And in terms of strategy, this would be foremost. By appointing him VP, the President would be enrolling Mr Odinga into a ‘forced’ mentorship programme.
Under this programme, he would become the President’s ‘mouth piece’. This means that he cannot go around hugging Mr Uhuru Kenyatta or fraternising with Mr Simon Nyachae. Similarly, there would be no roads to inspect because he would become VP and Minister without portfolio.
The rationale here would be that as a ‘pupil’ to the President, he should not be ‘stressed’ with ministerial duties. As for Mr Odinga, a VP position would almost guarantee him a ticket to the presidency once Kibaki retires. More so if the President declares "Raila Tosha!" at the end of his reign.
But there are two problems here: One, can Mr Odinga abandon his pursuit for the position of prime minister in search of the VP post? In my view, he can. No, maybe he should. Two, what about the men around the President? Would they trust him? Can they entrust their future after President Kibaki with him? I occupy the position that this is not an issue. From his style of leadership, the President represents no one but himself. He is a lone ranger and the men around him have no hold over him. As such, the decision on who becomes the next VP is entirely his!
The third consideration is based on the thinking of Pablo Picasso, the famous abstract artist. This man discovered that whenever he explained the inspiration behind his brilliant paintings, they never sold. But when he vaguely described the reasons behind his works, he sold millions. From this experience, the artist once remarked, "–the best calculation is always the absence of calculation. Once you have attained a certain level of recognition, people generally believe that whatever you do is for an intelligent reason".
I would want to invite Kenyans to consider the possibility that in appointing a VP, the President might have no calculation at all. That he might choose a VP for no apparent reason. And in my view, we must grant him the space to do so. With this thought, any of the 200 MPs has a chance of becoming the ‘King-in-waiting’. It also allows the most undeserving politicians the pleasure of fantasizing about the job!
A final consideration should be weaved around Mrs Charity Ngilu, Prof George Saitoti and Mr Mukhisa Kituyi. If the President chooses any of these people, he would be thinking about succession. He would be creating his own ‘Uhuru Project’ for 2007 or 2012.
Going back to Mr Wamalwa’s family, I am convinced that his widow, Yvonne, should run for his parliamentary seat. These are my reasons. One, in the absence of a Will, nothing is guaranteed. The only way to ensure that the VP's children are taken care of is to buy ‘political insurance’. And this insurance is only available in Parliament. Maybe the good President might even give her the position of assistant minister if she makes it. Two, and less personal, she can run for this seat to represent a cause.
The cause would be about young disadvantaged women her age. Three, if, indeed, the Narc brigade loved Mr Wamalwa as much as they say, they will give her automatic nomination for the seat. As such, this opportunity should not be missed. Yes, she must mourn her departed husband. But she must not be buried with him!
And now the government report card for the month of August. Regarding the VP’s funeral arrangements, I would give the government an ‘A’. However, I submit that the country is devoting too much time and energy mourning the departed Vice-President.
In fact, I agree with Kanu MP William Ruto that we did not have to postpone the Bomas II talks for two weeks in his honour. A few days would have been enough. And not because the VP deserved less. But because he would have wanted Bomas II to continue uninterrupted.
The question we must, therefore, ask is this: Is there a motive in prolonging the mourning? This in my view is a stupid and annoying question. However, Mr Ruto would probably not think so. And this is why we must ask the question for him. As we ponder the question, I believe Mr Ruto would give the government a ‘D’ for sincerity on this matter!
Mr Ngunyi is a political scientist with ConsultAfrika, a research and consulting firm.
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