'Vulture Funds'
Descend On Dying Third World
Economies
by Dennis
Small
vulture, n. 1: any of various large raptorial birds ... that
subsist chiefly or entirely on carrion 2: a rapacious or predatory
person.
—Webster's Ninth New Collegiate Dictionary
Argentine Finance Minister Roberto Lavagna used the high-profile
forum of the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and
World Bank in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, to unveil on Sept. 22
Argentina's long-awaited proposal to restructure some $94.3 billion in
public debt, on which the government had defaulted in December 2001.
Lavagna's proposed "solution" to the world's longest-running and biggest
public debt default, was to write off 75% of the debt's face value, and
service the remaining 25% somewhere down the line.
Howls
of outraged protest exploded from spokesmen for Argentina's international
creditors, especially the speculators widely referred to as "vulture
funds," which now hold most of the defaulted bonds. "This is not a serious
offer," blustered Christian Stracke, head of emerging market research at
CreditSights. "Scandalous, offensive, morally unacceptable," fumed Italian
bondholder and lawyer Mauro Sandri, without a trace of irony.
Then
came the threats of legal action. "There is no way Argentina will avoid
going to court with this offer," warned Stracke. London's Financial
Times reported that "frustrated Japanese investors are trying to seize
government land in Argentina's Patagonia, and German investors are trying
to appropriate Argentine-embassy assets to recoup losses." Rumors even
began to swirl that the Argentine Presidential jet would shortly be
seized.
In
fact, one vulture holding defaulted Argentine bonds has already succeeded
in winning just such a judgment. On Sept. 12, a New York court ruled in
favor of Kenneth Dart, of Dart Container Corp., granting him a $700
million judgment. Dart will have the right to start seizing Argentine
assets at the end of October.
Finance
Minister Lavagna told a TV interviewer: "In this particular case, it's a
vulture fund for $700 million.... These funds that buy the bonds do it for
no other reason than to sue governments." And Argentine President Néstor
Kirchner told his advisors, according to the daily Clarín, that
most of the defaulted Argentine bonds have in fact been bought up by the
vulture funds, and that they paid an average 20 cents on the dollar for
them.
In
other words, their fulminations notwithstanding, the vultures stand to
make a killing, even with Argentina paying on only 25% of face value—let
alone if they are able to collect dollar-for-dollar.
LaRouche: This
Is Fascism
Informed of the Argentine developments, U.S. Presidential
pre-candidate Lyndon LaRouche denounced the vulture funds—which typify a
very large part of the global financial system today—as being "fascists,
just like those who put Hitler in power. These bastards," LaRouche
elaborated, "care even less than President Bush for the stability of the
system. Now you're looking at fascism in the face. And if you want to
characterize it, you would say about the vulture funds' reaction, this
gives you the mentality of the same kind of fascists who sacrificed the
human race, including all those who died eventually in Auschwitz. This is
why people died in Auschwitz: because these vulture funds had to have a
government which would do the kind of job they demand."
As for
the New York court finding in favor of Dart, LaRouche noted that it
clearly goes beyond the court's jurisdiction and competence, to assess the
value of debts owed by a sovereign state. This stinks of Teddy Roosevelt's
"Gunboat Diplomacy" to collect the debt, LaRouche concluded.
The
Argentina case is in fact typical of the entire global financial bubble:
None of the debt can actually be paid, and the only real policy issue is
whether to put people's welfare before the debt—as LaRouche demands—or to
try desperately to maintain the illusion that the debt is somehow
still performing, no matter what the human cost. In that latter camp, the
vultures are gaining ground against those who are still trying to maintain
"stability," and revive the corpse of the world financial system, if need
be by swallowing sizeable debt write-downs. The vultures prefer to descend
on the body now, and be first to pick over the bones. For them,
it's every vulture for himself, and the devil take the
hindmost.
Argentina, of course, had a choice: to go the LaRouche route, or
to become an economic cadaver. The country reached that fork in the road
back in December 2001, when interim President Adolfo Rodríguez Saa
announced to a cheering Congress that he would stand up to the country's
creditors, and declared a foreign debt moratorium on the spot. But
Rodríguez Saa was unable to rally sufficient support, domestically and
internationally, for this courageous approach, and Argentina's frightened
political class and other institutions allowed him to be toppled on Jan.
1, 2002. This set Argentina on the course of submission to vulture
economics that it remains wedded to, to this day.
Argentina
Still Can't Pay
Rhetoric aside, President Kirchner has, in fact, never seriously
considered breaking with the IMF. On Sept. 10, his government struck an
11th hour deal with the Fund, under which Argentina agreed to pay $2.9
billion it owed the IMF. That amount had come due on Sept. 9, and for one
day, Kirchner went into technical default against the IMF, in search of
more "lenient" terms under which Argentina was to be raped by its
creditors.
"We
were in default for more than 24 hours," Kirchner reportedly told his
closest advisors during a plane ride to New York on Sept. 22. "I could
have fallen, but had that happened, the whole IMF would have fallen with
me," he blustered.
Kirchner was referring to the widely known fact that a default
against the IMF or the World Bank, as opposed to a mere private lender, is
capable of bringing down the entire international financial system. Such a
default could prove contagious with other countries, including neighboring
Brazil, which has a public debt about twice the size of Argentina's. As an
Argentine Finance Ministry source told La Nación newspaper, the
possibility of an eventual Brazilian debt default "is on a lot of people's
minds." Any such sovereign default against the IMF would likely lead to a
downgrading of its credit rating, and that could mean the effective
bankruptcy of the IMF itself, and of the entire IMF system.
On
Sept. 10, Kirchner chose to defend that system, and struck a deal with the
IMF, which, he was told, was a prerequisite for negotiating a write-down
of the $94.3 billion in privately held government bonds. The IMF, in turn,
was pressured by the Bush Administration to be "lenient" with Argentina,
since the stability of the entire global system was considered a higher
priority than collecting every penny—at least for now. As an unnamed Bush
Administration source soberly told the daily Clarín: "Nobody wanted
Argentina to again go into default with an international
institution."
The IMF
thus agreed to Argentina producing a 2004 Primary Budget Surplus, or PBS
(with which to pay the public debt) of "only" 3% of GDP—whereas the
country's more rapacious creditors had been demanding Brazil-style levels
of 5%. The international financial media then ridiculously characterized
the deal by saying that "the IMF blinked" in the face of Kirchner's
"tough" negotiating stance. A manic George Bush further stroked the
Argentine President's ego at a Sept. 23 reception at the United Nations,
by greeting him from across the room in a loud voice: "Here comes the man
who conquered the IMF!"
The
vulture funds, for their part, were furious at how "lenient" the IMF had
been with Argentina. As a Bloomberg wire reported, the Italian Mauro
Sandri and other vulture bondholders "said they were outraged after
Argentina reached an accord with the IMF two weeks ago, that ensures the
government pays back multinational lenders while forcing losses on
investors."
IMF
spokesman Thomas Dawson defended their deal with Argentina by arguing that
it "will lead to a sustainable debt position"—which is a lie. As one
Buenos Aires economist told the Financial Times: "It's doubtful
Argentina can even service its performing debt with that [a 3% PBS], let
alone defaulted loans."
The
reality is that Argentina is not going to be able to service its public
debt, even after the 75% write-down. On top of the $94.3 billion in
defaulted bonds—now to be written down to some $24 billion face
value—Argentina has another $85 billion in supposedly performing public
debt. Of that, about $70 billion is classified as "Senior debt," meaning
that it is paid first, before the renegotiated defaulted debt. This
"Senior debt" includes some $25 billion in new government bonds,
that were issued after the December 2001 default.
So,
even with massive write-offs, Argentina is staring down the barrel of a
gun at well over $100 billion in public debt that it has to pay—an
impossibility, given the ongoing destruction of its physical
economy.
To
achieve even a "low" PBS of 3% in 2004, the government is going to have to
impose further massive cuts in government spending on wages for teachers,
doctors, and others, as well as in pension payments. This is on top of the
11% plunge in national economic activity in 2002, which, coupled with a
70% forced devaluation of the peso that year, has meant that Argentina's
dollar-denominated GDP plummeted from $264 billion in 2001, to $120
billion in 2002—a 55% drop! As a result, over half of Argentina's 38
million people now live below the poverty line, and unemployment is over
20%.
There
is no amount of achievable looting that can make Argentina's debt
perform. Analysts estimate that, for Argentina to be able to pay, even
after a 75% write-off, it would have to generate a PBS not of 3%, but of
4.5%; and not for one year or two, but for the next 15 years!
This is
fascism and lunacy, as LaRouche stated. If adopted, such policies will
leave Argentina, and the rest of the developing sector economies that
follow it, as a carcass picked over by vultures. And then the debt will be
defaulted on, anyway. |
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