thanks so much for your comments. I was refraining from commenting on this poll lest its construed as waging a crusade against the Monitor (I criticized the Monitor recently). I would just like to put on record that I and all the people I have cared to ask did not take part in this online poll. I'm sure the Monitor has a presence on this forum, but the fact that the paper found it necessary to quote someone about federo who has clearly failed to grasp the most elementary principles of the system, is suspect.
In future I hope the Monitor can specifically point netters - who normally don't have all the time on their hands like our friends in Toronto - to such a poll, instead of producing such a bogus one.
Kasangwawo
From: "J Ssemakula" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] CC: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: ugnet_: Ugandans Abroad Reject 3rd term, Federo Date: Wed, 08 Oct 2003 02:08:17 +0000
_________________________________________________________________
Tired of 56k? Get a FREE BT Broadband connection http://www.msn.co.uk/specials/btbroadband
--- Begin Message -------Original Message Follows---- From: Omar Kezimbira <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] CC: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: ugnet_: Ugandans Abroad Reject 3rd term, Federo Date: Fri, 3 Oct 2003 09:44:35 -0700 (PDT) Monitor's online poll rejects 3rd term, federo By Ronald Muyimba Oct 4, 2003- Monitor KAMPALA - The Monitor's online poll shows that Ugandans abroad are opposed to giving President Museveni a third term. They are also opposed to a federal system of governance. The results were (Option 1: Federo - votes: 206 (26.28%) - 5.9 votes per day, Option 2: 3rd Term - votes: 67 (8.55%) - 1.9 votes per day, Option 3: BOTH - votes: 45 (5.74%) - 1.3 votes per day, Option 4: None of the above - votes: 466 (59.44%) - 13.3 votes per day). The Monitor forum and poll topic "Should Uganda's Constitution be amended to allow 'Third term' or 'Federo'?" ran after the Katikkiro of Buganda Mr Joseph Mulwanyamuli Ssemwogerere led a procession of thousands of Baganda to submit the kingdom's views to the Constitutional Review Commission. Prominent among the views was the demand for a federal status for Buganda. One of a million visitors on The Monitor website, under the alias 'Muganda' likes federalism but he believes it can only make a bad situation worse given the nature of Uganda's politics. Federo, as locally known, is not the only good thing to happen to him. It is the politics of Uganda that has to be stable before the country adopts federo. "Buganda must know that a problem in Uganda affects all of us as a nation, directly or indirectly. And it is a shame that we even have this discussion, for it is a sign that Buganda failed to understand that matters in northern or eastern Uganda are national matters," Edward Mulindwa in Toronto said. "This brings us back to federo. Museveni's quest for the third term is absurd. Don't you think we can get a federo where you first need permission from an RDC (resident district commissioner) before offering something to the Kabaka (king)? Any thing can happen. And if we want federo, must it be from Museveni? Why not his successor?" Muganda argued. "Let Museveni first end the war, then he or his successor gives us federo," he added. Setyabule Grace criticises the agitation to give Museveni a third term. She says that is being undemocratic. She advises that democratic leaders like the US President George Bush should come in and advise on the political situation in Uganda. 'Modern Woman' (another online reader) rebukes the Baganda talk 'Omulalu wakuweera' (take the chance when it still lasts)... Why look gift horses in the mouth? Lets just take what's ours and enjoy it. Federo is a right not a gift! "If Museveni wants to give us federo, let there be no strings attached." Hilder said. "If he is attaching strings there, then we may as well do away with it," she says. Read more on http://www.monitor.co.ug © 2003 The Monitor PublicationsI am not sure I'd jump to any firm conclusions based on a sample survey of 206 -- especially one that hasn't had the benefit of even a rudimentary sample design and an even more flawed analysis -- if one can call it that.
Certainly, I'd do my best to limit any tentative conclusions to the population that visited the monitor in a given period the sampling was done.
There is a reason, other than lack of something better to do, that people invest lots of money and time to study the science of statistics and eventually specialize in survey work or more simply "sampling". And there is an on-going effort by profession statisticians to communicate the knowledge base of this subject, most notably examplified in the wide array of textbooks on sampling aimed at various levels of compentence, as well as learned journals for the pros themselves.
However, I hasten to add that Monitor is hardly alone in not consulting professional statisticians with specialized knowlede of sampling. Many a time even researchers at universities do overlook the necessity of consulting with a specialist in sampling and/or experiment design before spending oodles of money and time on a given study. By the time the researcher limps over to the desk of a statisticians, pretty much all that can be done is a post mortem, for by the time the patient (the study) has long been dead -- often beyond the point of ressucitation!
As for this particular "poll", why is the sample size so small given that the poppulation of Ugandans abroad is in the thousands, may be even hundreds of thousands? How large was the sampling frame? Was the sampling effort so feeble as to make the results useless? What design, if any, was used? What were the error bounds of whatever the estimate was?
Why wasn't the fatct that Ugandans abroad have an internet discussion group specifically devoted to federo, as federalism known in Ugandan parlance ([EMAIL PROTECTED]), not mentioned in the article? Why wasn't that group contacted for its opinion on the matter?
According the Odoki Commission, 65% support federo in Uganda, and 97% in Buganda as reported in a press release of the Uganda Government on April 15, 2003: Museveni can't grant Buganda federo - Reform, and available on the web at www.government.go.ug/press_releases/index.php?myId=3. Given that federo is very popular in Uganda, and that Ugandans in the diaspora (abroad) are a sub-population of Ugandans at home, how come that supposedly only 26% of us support federo? Or could it be that the Monitor takes us to be uncritical readers of whatever it publishes?
Giving us anectodes of what one person going under the pseudoname 'Muganda' and the like is hardly a substitute for incisive and well researched journalism.
I am afraid, I cannot help but give the Monitor a big fat "F" for this piece. But considering that there was some attempt to use sampling, make that an F plus, whatever that is worth.
If the Monitor wants to be taken seriously, it will have to do much better, quite a bit more energetically and enthusiastically.
J. Ssemakula
Frustrated with dial-up? Get high-speed for as low as $29.95/month*.
*Depending on the local service providers in your area.-------------------------------------------- This service is hosted on the Infocom network http://www.infocom.co.ug
--- End Message ---
