Last Updated Sat, 14 Feb 2004 12:51:02
SEATTLE - A mathematical model can predict whether a couple tying the knot is geared for success or is heading for the rocks, an American researcher says.
University of Washington psychologist John Gottman says the model is based on a 20-year study of more than 600 married couples.
The researchers said their cupid meter can forecast whether a couple will divorce within 5.6 years with 94 per cent accuracy.
To gather data, Gottman and his colleagues examined videotapes of couples debating a contentious issue in their marriage such as sex or money. The researchers looked at what was said, facial expressions and body language.
The researchers also analysed physiological data, such as pulse rates. When someone's heart beat rose above 100 beats per minute, the body started to produce adrenaline, which made it harder to take in information.
How couples resolve differences is an important factor in whether a marriage will last. Gottman said there are basically three types of stable marriages: conflict avoiders, arguers, and "validating" couples.
"When the masters of marriage are talking about something important, they may be arguing, but they are also laughing and teasing and there are signs of affection because they have made emotional connections," Gottman said in a release.
The researchers awarded points for positive interactions such as talking lovingly and subtracted points for negative interactions such as showing anger and hostility. A computer calculates the ratio.
Troubled marriages tend to happen when the couples are a mix of personalities that don't mesh in resolving conflicts, Gottman said.
Early research suggests the love meter can also forecast how a relationship will fare if they change their behavior to one another.
The results were presented Thursday at the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting in Seattle. The researchers will participate in a symposium on the science of love and marriage on Saturday, Valentine's Day.
Written by CBC News Online staff
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